从弱激励到强激励:河长制政策创新扩散研究——基于省级数据的事件史分析

From Weak Incentives to Strong Incentives:Research on the Innovation and Diffusion of the River Chief System Policy——Analysis of Event History Based on Provincial Data

借助2007—2017年我国省级面板数据,采用事件史分析法,探讨了中央目标约束、府际竞争、社会舆论等对河长制政策创新扩散的影响。结果表明:中央目标约束、府际竞争、社会舆论等显著影响河长制政策创新扩散,河长制政策创新扩散的强激励特性,与自上而下、横向竞争、自下而上等多源压力的共同作用密切相关。

Based on my country′s provincial panel data from 2007 to 2017,this paper explores the impact of central goal constraints,inter-governmental competition,and social public opinion on the diffusion of the river chief policy innovation by event history analysis.Results show that the central goal constraint,inter-governmental competition,and social public opinion significantly affect the innovation and diffusion of the river chief system policy,and the strong incentive characteristics of the river chief system policy innovation diffusion are more than top-down,horizontal competition,bottom-up,etc.The combined effect of source pressure is closely related.