财政支农、技术溢出与农业碳排放

Financial Support for Agriculture,Technology Spillover and Agricultural Carbon Emissions

通过构建空间计量模型并利用1994—2019年中国省级面板数据,分析财政支农投入影响农业碳排放总量的技术进步溢出机制,并进一步分析其区域异质性特征。结果表明:(1)中国省级层面的农业碳排放总量、财政支农投入与农业技术进步均呈现出显著的正向空间自相关性。(2)财政支农投入不仅对农业碳排放总量具有显著的直接抑制作用,还可通过促进农业技术进步而抑制农业碳排放量的增加。(3)中国省级农业碳排放总量存在显著的空间溢出效应,邻近省份通过财政支农投入促进技术进步,对本省份农业碳排放总量具有显著的负向溢出效应。(4)区域异质性检验发现,在中部和西部地区,财政支农投入不仅能通过提高本省农业技术进步来抑制农业碳排放总量的增加,而且由于技术进步溢出机制的作用还会促使邻近省份农业碳排放总量的减少。

By constructing a spatial econometric model and using Chinese provincial panel data from 1994 to 2019,this paper analyzes the spillover mechanism of technological progress by which financial support for agriculture influences total agricultural carbon emissions,and further analyzes the characteristics of regional heterogeneity.Results show that,the total agricultural carbon emissions,financial support for agriculture,and agricultural technological progress at the provincial level in China all show significant positive spatial autocorrelations.Financial support for agriculture not only has a significant direct inhibition effect on the total agricultural carbon emissions,but also indirectly inhibits the increase of agricultural carbon emissions by promoting the progress of agricultural technology.There is a significant spatial spillover effect on the total agricultural carbon emissions at the provincial level in China.When neighboring provinces promote technological progress through financial support to agriculture,a significant negative spillover effect is exerted on the total agricultural carbon emissions of this province.The regional heterogeneity test shows that in the central and western regions,financial support for agriculture can not only inhibit the increase of total agricultural carbon emissions in the province by promoting agricultural technological progress,but also reduce the total agricultural carbon emissions in the neighboring provinces due to the spillover mechanism of technological progress.