负利率政策可以缓解失业潮冲击吗?——基于合成控制法的研究

Can negative interest rate policy cushion the shock of unemployment?Study based on synthetic control method

运用合成控制法根据2008—2020年日本及34个控制组国家或地区经济数据,研究日本负利率政策对失业率的影响。结果表明:日本负利率政策能够降低失业率,但需要一定传导时间,在进行安慰剂检验后,该结论仍然成立;日本负利率政策对失业率影响随时间变化,政策实施后2016—2019年内无法影响失业率,但是在2020年显著降低失业率。这说明负利率政策传导效果不够稳定,时间和客观环境差异可能导致结果截然不同。因此,各国政府不能过分依赖于这种手段,应该结合实际情况综合运用货币政策。

The paper uses the synthetic control method to study the impact of Japan’s negative interest rate policy on the unemployment rate based on the economic data of Japan and 34 control group countries or regions from 2008 to 2020. The results show that Japan’s negative interest rate policy can reduce the unemployment rate, but it takes a period of transmission time, and after a placebo test, the conclusion is still true;the impact of Japan’s negative interest rate policy on the unemployment rate changes with time, and the unemployment rate hadn’t been affected from 2016 to 2019 with the implementation of the policy, but the unemployment rate was significantly reduced in 2020. This shows that the transmission effect of negative interest rate policy is not stable enough, and the differences in time and objective environment may lead to completely different results. Therefore, governments should not rely too much on this means and should comprehensively apply monetary policy in the light of actual conditions.