“太相似而不能倒”:银行信贷同群效应与系统性风险

“Too Similar to Fail”:Peer Effects of Bank Loans and Systemic Risks

受信息级联效应及声誉机制影响,商业银行信贷决策行为趋同所带来的同群效应,会加大银行业共同风险敞口,继而对系统性风险产生影响。对此,文章在逻辑建构的基础上,以2010—2020年间中国A股上市银行为样本进行了验证。研究结果表明,商业银行存在信贷同群效应,呈现出同类模仿的特征,且不因取消存贷比这一政策冲击而发生实质性改变。信贷同群效应提升了贷款行业集中度、造成银行资产重叠,继而增大共同风险敞口,显著提升了银行业系统性风险水平。经济政策不确定性越大,信贷同群效应越可能诱发系统性风险。因而,商业银行应当走以科技和创新为驱动力的差异化、特色化、专业化之路,拒绝低水平竞争,防范系统性风险,为实体经济的转型升级保驾护航,助推高质量发展。

Under the influence of information cascade effect and reputation mechanism,peer effects brought by the convergence of credit decision-making behavior of commercial banks will increase the common risk exposure of the banking industry,and then have an impact on systemic risks. Based on a logical construction,this paper takes data of China’s A-share listed banks from 2010 to 2020 to verify this phenomenon. The results show that commercial banks have significant credit peer effects,banks mainly imitate the same kind. The results do not change due to the policy of canceling loan-to-deposit ratio.Peer effects aggravate the concentration of bank loans,and significantly increase the systemic risks of the banking industry.The more uncertain the economic policy is,the more likely peer effects increase systemic risks. Therefore,commercial banks should take the road of differentiation,characteristics and specialization driven by science,technology and innovation,and refuse low-level competition. as well as pay more attention to systemic risks,and escort the transformation and upgrading of the real economy and the high-quality development.