近30年宁乡烤烟气候变化特征及适宜性评价

Climate Change Characteristics and Suitability Evaluation of Flue-cured Tobacco in Ningxiang during Recent 30 Years

为合理利用气候资源、挖掘烤烟生产的气候潜力,以1991—2020年宁乡的逐日气象观测数据为基础资料,采用趋势分析、适宜性评价等方法对宁乡烟区气候资源变化、烤烟种植的主要气候限制因子及烤烟气候适宜性的变化进行分析。结果表明:宁乡烟区气候资源年际间差异较大,生育期均温和≥10℃积温均显著升高,倾向率分别为0.70℃/10 a和75.49℃/10 a;大田期降水量和大田期日照时数略有下降,但未通过95%的显著性检验。宁乡烤烟生产主要限制因子是伸根期均温和成熟期降水量,伸根期均温适宜度有向好的趋势,而成熟期降水量适宜度有变差的趋势;宁乡烟区烤烟气候适宜性指数(CFI)有所增加,且通过95%的显著性检验。近30年宁乡烟区气候资源发生了较大变化,生产上可趋利避害,合理利用气候的变化,布置好烤烟生产物侯期。

In order to make rational use of climate resources and tap the climate potential of flue-cured tobacco production, based on the daily meteorological observation data of Ningxiang from 1991 to 2020,the changes of climate resources, the main climate limiting factors of flue-cured tobacco planting and the changes of climate suitability of Flue-cured Tobacco were analyzed by using the methods of trend analysis and suitability evaluation.The results showed that there were great interannual differences in climate resources in Ningxiang tobacco area.The growth period was mild and the accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ increased significantly, and the tendency rates were 0.70 ℃/10 a and 75.49 ℃/10 a respectively;The rainfall in field period and sunshine hours in field period decreased slightly but failed to pass the 95% significance test.The results of climate suitability analysis showed that the main limiting factors of flue-cured tobacco production in Ningxiang were the average temperature in root extension period and rainfall in mature period.The average temperature suitability in root extension period had a good trend, while the rainfall suitability in mature period had a different trend.The climate suitability index(CFI) of flue-cured tobacco in Ningxiang tobacco area increased and passed the 95% significance test.In recent 30 years, the climate resources in Ningxiang tobacco area have changed greatly.In production, we can make rational use of the climate changes and reasonably arrange the climate of flue-cured tobacco production.