1980—2020年新疆土地利用变化下生态系统服务价值时空演变分析

Temporal and spatial evolution of ecosystem service value under land use change in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020

随着社会经济的发展,探究土地利用变化下生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem service value,ESV)时空演变对优化土地利用结构和区域持续发展有着重要意义。基于1980—2020年新疆土地利用数据,在ArcGIS和GeoDa支撑下,使用单位面积当量因子法、空间自相关等方法,分析新疆土地利用变化下ESV时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)1980—2020年新疆主要的土地利用类型是草地和未利用地,两者共占新疆总面积的91.00%。耕地和建设用地面积呈增加趋势,分别增长58.89%和166.79%;水域和林地面积减少量最多,分别减少29.95%和26.62%。(2)1980—2020年新疆ESV总体呈现“先增后减”的变化趋势,净减少1114.51×10^(8)元(6.68%)。从空间分布来看,新疆ESV高值区和较高值区主要分布在阿尔泰山、昆仑山、天山(简称“三山”)和伊犁河谷地区,中等价值区和较低价值区分布在绿洲地区,低价值区主要分布在盆地和沙漠地区。(3)1980—2015年新疆ESV变化很小,但2015—2020年北、中天山地区EVS变化显著。2015—2020年北、中天山地区高价值区减少75.29%,被中等价值区和较低值区取代;中等价值区和较低价值区分别增长13.64%和10.78%;低价值区有向中等价值区扩散趋势。(4)从ESV的空间自相关来看,局部相关性、热点分析呈现“西高东低”的空间分布特点。高-高集聚区、热点区分布在“三山”地区,低-低集聚区、冷点区分布在盆地和沙漠地区。水域和林地面积的下降是引起2015—2020年新疆生态系统服务总价值下降的主要原因之一。

With the development of the social economy, exploring the temporal and spatial evolutions of the ecosystem service value(ESV) under land use change is greatly significant in optimizing the land use structure and regional sustainable development. Based on the land use data of Xinjiang, China from 1980 to 2020 and with the support of ArcGIS and GeoDa, this study uses the unit area equivalent factor method and spatial autocorrelation to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the ESV under land use change in Xinjiang. The results show that the main land use types in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 are grassland and unused land, which accounted for 91.00% of the total area of Xinjiang. The area of cultivated and construction lands increased by 58.89% and 166.79%, respectively. The water and forest land areas decreased the most by 29.95%and 26.62%, respectively. From 1980 to 2020, the ESV in Xinjiang generally showed a change trend of“first increasing, and then decreasing”, depicting a net decrease of 1114.51×10^(8) yuan or 6.68%. From the spatial distribution perspective, the high-and second high-value areas of the ESV in Xinjiang were mainly distributed in Altai, Kunlun, and Tianshan Mountains(i.e., Three Mountains) and the Ili River Valley. The medium-and second low-value areas were distributed in the oasis area. The low-value area was mainly distributed in the basin and desert areas. From 1980 to 2015, the ESV in Xinjiang only slightly changed. In contrast, from 2015 to 2020, that in the middle Tianshan Mountains significantly changed. During this period, the high-value area in the northern and middle Tianshan Mountains decreased by 75.29% and was replaced by the medium-and second low-value areas. The middle-and second low-value areas increased by 13.64% and 10.78%, respectively. The low-value areas move toward some medium-value ones. From the perspective of the spatial autocorrelation of the ESV, the local correlation and hot spot analysis showed the spatial distribution characteristic of high in the west and low in the east. The high-high-concentration and hot spot areas were distributed in the Three Mountains area, while the low-low-concentration and cold spot areas were distributed in the basin and desert areas. The water and forest land area decline is one of the primary reasons for the total ESV decline in Xinjiang from 2015 to 2020.