低碳政策对制造业供应链决策的非线性效应研究——基于模型构建与数值仿真的分析

Research on the Nonlinear Effect of Low-carbon Policy on Manufacturing Supply Chain Decision——Analysis based on model construction and numerical simulation

“双碳”战略下,节能减排、绿色发展成为制造业技术革命的主题与方向。本文通过研究制造业厂商实施低碳政策对两级供应链决策的影响机理,分别构建无碳限额、碳限额以及碳限额下价格补贴三种情景的供应链一体化决策模型,分析碳减排政策对制造业供应链产品的最优定价策略组合、市场需求与利润的影响。结果表明:碳排放的影子价格变化随减排程度的增加,呈先增大后减小的倒“U”型;随着减排程度的增加,碳限额政策对低碳产品的市场价格的影响逐渐减弱;低碳政策打破了市场壁垒,使得碳排放权成为稀缺资源,影响供应链一体化决策,且其影响制造业供应链一体化决策过程呈现非线性效应。

Under the "double carbon" strategy, energy conservation, emission reduction and green development have become the theme and direction of the manufacturing technology revolution. This paper studies the mechanism of the impact of the low carbon policy of carbon emission reduction implemented by manufacturing manufacturers on the two-level supply chain decision-making, constructs the supply chain integration decision-making model of three scenarios: no carbon limit, carbon limit and price subsidy under carbon limit, and analyzes the impact of carbon emission reduction policy on the optimal pricing strategy combination, market demand and profit of manufacturing supply chain products. The results show that the shadow price of carbon emissions increases first and then decreases with the increase of emission reduction;With the increase of emission reduction, the impact of carbon quota policy on the market price and demand of low-carbon products is gradually weakened;Low-carbon policy breaks the market barrier, making carbon emission rights become scarce resources, affecting the decision-making of supply chain integration, and its impact on the decision-making process of manufacturing supply chain integration presents a nonlinear effect, that is, with the improvement of emission reduction degree, the low-carbon policy has a progressive promotion effect on supply chain profits.