2022年第四季度及后期动力煤市场展望

Prospect of steam coal market in the fourth quarter and later period of 2022

受资源条件、运输能力、需求变化、突发事件等多因素影响,区域性、时段性供需紧张问题时有发生,煤炭价格剧烈波动。相关部门多次对煤炭市场进行监管干预,逐渐形成了煤炭价格在合理区间内运行的调控机制。预计2022年第四季度煤炭供需关系仍然偏紧,煤炭资源向中长期长协合同倾斜,挤占市场煤货源,煤炭中间环节库存低位将支撑价格高位运行;煤炭保供稳价将常态化;供需因素仍会是决定煤炭价格的主要因素;从未来较长时间来看,煤炭价格的波动幅度缩小,煤炭价格将在合理区间内运行。

Affected by resource conditions,transportation capacity,changes in demand,unexpected events and other multi-fac-tors,regional and temporal supply and demand tensions occur from time to time,and coal prices fluctuate dramatically. Therelevant departments have repeatedly intervened to regulate the coal market and gradually formed a regulatory mechanism forcoal prices to operate within a reasonable range. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2022,coal supply and demand isstill tight,coal resources to medium and long-term long-term contracts,crowding out market coal sources,low coal intermedi-ate inventory will support high prices;coal supply and price stability will be normalized;supply and demand factors will re-main the main determinants of coal prices;from a longer period of time in the future,the volatility of coal prices narrow;coal prices will operate within a reasonable range.