环境不确定背景下煤炭价格波动特征及影响因素分析

Analysis of coal price fluctuatio n characteristics and influencing factors in the context of environmental uncertainty

煤炭作为全球能源结构的主要组成,在国民经济发展中有着重要地位,其价格波动与宏观经济息息相关。利用代表国际煤价的欧洲动力煤、南非理查德动力煤和澳大利亚纽卡斯尔动力煤的现货价与代表国内煤价的秦皇岛动力煤(Q5500 K)的平仓价、长协价的阶段性数据,探寻煤价变动的规律和原因:利用皮尔逊相关性双侧检验,发现国际煤价与国内煤价相关度较高,并且煤价均呈上升趋势且在2022年增速最快,但国内煤价更为稳定。其次,影响煤价的因素包括低碳转型、极端天气、政府管控、可再生能源、新冠疫情和俄乌冲突等,其中后两者对价格影响更为明显。最后,在碳中和的背景下,煤炭行业要做好能源转型工作,提高可持续发展能力并推动能源结构调整。

As a major component of the global energy structure, coal has an important position in the development of national economy,and its price fluctuations are closely related to macroeconomics. This paper explores the patterns and causes of coal price changes by using the stage data of spot prices of European power coal, South African Richard power coal and Australian Newcastle power coal, which represent international coal prices, and the closing prices and LTA prices of Qinhuangdao power coal( Q5500 K), which represent domestic coal prices: using Pearson correlation two-sided test, we find that international coal prices are highly correlated with domestic coal prices, and all coal prices are on an upward trend and the fastest growth rate in 2022, but the domestic coal price is more stable. Second, the factors affecting coal prices include low carbon transition, extreme weather, government control, renewable energy,COVID-19 panden, and Russia-Ukraine conflict, among which the latter two have more significant effects on prices. Finally, in the context of carbon neutrality, the coal industry should do a good job of energy transition to improve sustainable development and promote energy restructuring.