我国碳交易试点的政策效应及其作用机制

Policy effect and mechanism of carbon trading pilot in China

中国开展碳交易试点应对气候变化,但推动经济发展仍然是我国现阶段的核心要务,现有文献关于分析政策经济影响的实证研究相对缺乏,通过收集2005—2019年中国省级面板数据,构造倾向得分匹配-双重差分(PSM-DID)模型,从减排与经济两个角度分析了政策效应。研究表明,碳交易在有效降低试点地区的二氧化碳排放水平的同时还能提高人均经济水平。并且通过中介效应解锁了两全办法,即控制能源消费总量、调整能源结构同时利好减排与经济。

China has carried out carbon trading pilot program to cope with climate change, but promoting economic development is still the core task of China at the present stage. There is a relatively lack of empirical research on analyzing the economic impact of policies in existing literature. By collecting Chinese provincial panel data from 2005 to 2019, this paper constructed a PSM-DID model. The policy effect is analyzed from the Angle of emission reduction and economy. Studies show that carbon trading can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions in pilot areas while improving per capita economic performance. And through the intermediary effect to unlock the two ways, that is to control the total energy consumption, adjust the energy structure at the same time good emission reduction and economic.