中国农业农村现代化发展水平的时空演变特征及区域差异研究

Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Regional Differences of Agricultural and Rural Modernization Development Level in China

本文通过构建农业农村现代化指标体系,测度中国2008—2020年省级农业农村现代化发展水平,并利用非参数核密度估计(KDE)、Moran’sⅠ指数和Dagum基尼系数分析其时空演化特征及区域差异。研究发现:除东北区域2014年后出现负增长外,其他三大区域农业农村现代化发展水平均持续上升,但不同省域与区域之间存在明显的空间异质性,东部区域发展最好、中部区域发展最快、西部区域发展相对较慢;各省农业农村现代化发展具有明显的地理空间集聚特征,其空间集聚模式以“高—低”或“低—高”为主;全国农业农村现代化水平整体上处于不断优化的过程中,但东部区域和中部区域内部差异逐年增大,且东部区域内部农业农村现代化发展水平的非均衡程度尤其突出。

In this paper,an indicator system of agricultural and rural modernization was constructed to measure the level of provincial agricultural and rural modernization in China from 2008 to 2020.Non-parametric kernel density estimation,Moran’s I index and Dagum Gini coefficient were used to analyze its spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and regional differences.The results show that the development level of agricultural and rural modernization in the three eastern,central and western regions has continued to rise,except for the negative growth in the northeast region after 2014.However,there is obvious spatial heterogeneity among different provinces and regions.The eastern region has the best development,the central region has the fastest development,and the western region has a relatively slow development.The modernization development of agricultural and rural areas in China has obvious geographical spatial agglomeration characteristics,and the spatial agglomeration mode is mainly“high-low”or“low-high”.The agricultural and rural modernization development level in China is in the process of continuous optimization as a whole,but the regional differences between the eastern region and the central region are increasing year by year,and the unbalanced degree of the agricultural and rural modernization level in the eastern region is especially prominent at present.