“蓝色粮仓”对中国食物营养的贡献及预测研究

Research on the Contribution and Prediction of“Blue Food System”to Food Nutrition in China

在中国人口总量持续增长、食物消费需求不断升级、陆域食物生产局限难以突破的背景下,“蓝色粮仓”对保障中国食物营养安全具有重要意义。本文以鱼类、甲壳类、贝类、藻类与头足类五类海产品,以及海水养殖和海洋捕捞两种生产方式为研究对象,在计算2003—2019年中国居民食物营养需求量与海产品营养生产量的基础上,分析“蓝色粮仓”对中国食物营养贡献率的变化情况,并对未来发展趋势进行预测。结果显示:①中国居民食物营养需求量将保持增长趋势,人口增长和食物消费结构升级是需求量增长的主要驱动力。②2003—2019年,中国海产品营养产量呈现4阶段波动变化,其中海水养殖能量、蛋白质与脂肪贡献率总体呈现阶梯式增长趋势,海洋捕捞贡献率均呈现下降趋势;各类海产品中鱼类营养生产量占比最高,其次是贝类与甲壳类,藻类、头足类占比都较小。③据预测,未来海产品能量、蛋白质与脂肪贡献率将稳步上升,到2030年将分别达到2.15%、11.71%与1.66%。因而,“蓝色粮仓”对保障国家粮食安全、满足中国居民食物营养需求特别是动物蛋白需求有重要意义,未来中国应加快“蓝色粮仓”建设,强化其在中国食物营养中的贡献作用。

Under the background of the continuous growth of China’s total population,the upgrading of food consumption demand,and the difficulty in breaking through the limitations of land food production,the“Blue Food System”is of great significance to ensure China’s food nutrition security.In fish,crustaceans,shellfish,algae and cephalopods five types of seafood as the research object,explore the mariculture and marine fishing production of two kinds of mode of production change,when calculating the demand of residents in our country in 2003-2019 food nutrition and seafood nutrition production,on the basis of analysis of“Blue Food System”of contribution rate of change of food nutrition security in our country,and forecast the future development trend.The results show:(1)The demand for food nutrition of Chinese residents will maintain an increasing trend.Population growth and the upgrading of food consumption structure are the main driving forces for the increase in demand.(2)From 2003 to 2019,the nutritional output of marine products in China showed four stages of fluctuation.The contribution rate of mariculture energy,protein and fat showed a step growth trend,while the contribution rate of marine fishing showed a downward trend.In all kinds of seafood,fish nutrition production accounted for the highest proportion,followed by shellfish and crustaceans,algae,cephalopods accounted for a small proportion.(3)It is predicted that the contribution rate of energy,protein and fat of seafood will increase steadily in the future,and will increase to 2.15%,11.71%and 1.66%by 2030,respectively.Therefore,“Blue Food System”is of great significance to ensure national food security and meet the food nutrition needs of Chinese residents,especially the demand for animal protein.In the future,China should speed up the construction of“Blue Food System”and strengthen its contribution to China’s food nutrition security.