规划协同与地方发展路径转型——基于“多规合一”县域试点的经济效应检验

Planning collaboration and local development transformation:Economic effect analysis based on“multi-planning integration”pilot policy on county level

“多规合一”是建立国土空间规划体系、推进中国特色新型城镇化进程的重要抓手。通过构建覆盖1067个县域地区、横跨11年的面板数据库,应用双重差分模型并开展深度访谈,探索“多规合一”试点与经济发展间的潜在关联机制。结果发现:“多规合一”对经济增长表现出阶段性抑制作用,该作用在前2年尤为显著,且不受统筹模式调节;“多规合一”使高质量发展理念实现了地方性传导,在县域范围内实现了对“摊大饼”式增长模式的转型;规划协同基于行政管理、用途管制、建设工程的多维探索对粗放式发展路径形成牵制。以规划协同引领地方发展路径转型可为国土空间规划改革提供借鉴,但需理性看待“试错”与“探索”并存的空间规划体系改革的阶段性特征。

The“multi-planning integration”policy is an essential tool for establishing a national territorial and spatial planning system and promoting a new type of urbanization with Chinese characteristics.A panel database covering 1067 counties spanning 11 years was constructed,and a difference-in-difference model and in-depth interviews were conducted to explore the potential correlation mechanisms between the“multi-planning integration”pilot and economic development..The results show that:Firstly,MPI has a phased inhibitory effect on the economic growth of the administrative region in the short term,especially in the first and second years,and is not moderated by the integrated model.Secondly,MPI enables the national high-quality development to be transmitted to local government;Under the multi-dimensional exploration of administrative management,land-use control and construction projects,planning collaboration has hindered crude development path.The use of planning collaboration to lead the transformation path of local development can provide a reference for the reform of territorial spatial planning;and it is necessary to take a rational view of the stage of reform of the spatial planning system,where“trial and error”and“exploration”coexist.