流动性约束视角下货币政策对家庭消费的影响效应研究——基于CFPS数据的实证

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Household Consumption from the Perspective of Liquidity Constraint—Empirical Study Based on CFPS

我国家庭面临的流动性约束不断增加,央行在实施货币政策刺激消费时有必要考虑家庭面临的流动性约束。本文基于2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),探究家庭在流动性约束背景下货币政策对家庭消费的影响效应。研究发现:(1)货币政策冲击对流动性约束家庭和非流动性约束家庭的消费均具有显著正向影响,但其对流动性约束家庭的影响效应要比非流动性约束家庭的影响效应高1.8%,流动性约束的存在强化了货币政策对家庭消费的影响效应;(2)在货币政策对家庭消费的影响中,收入中介效应和资产中介效应均显著存在,且收入中介效应远大于资产中介效应,但储蓄中介效应仅在非流动性约束家庭中显著存在;(3)无论是流动性约束家庭还是非流动性约束家庭,货币政策冲击对城镇家庭消费的影响效应大于农村家庭,对中等收入家庭的消费影响效应大于低收入家庭和高收入家庭。

The liquidity constraints faced by Chinese households are constantly increasing.It is necessary for the central bank to consider the liquidity constraints faced by households when implementing monetary policies to stimulate consumption.Drawing on China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data from 2010 to 2018,this paper explores the effect of monetary policy on household consumption in the context of household liquidity constraints.The results show that:(1)Monetary policy has a significant positive effect on the consumption of both liquidity-constrained households and non-liquidity-constrained households,but its effect on the consumption of liquidity-constrained households is 1.8%higher than that of non-liquidity-constrained households.The existence of liquidity constraint strengthens the effect of monetary policy on household consumption.(2)In the effect of monetary policy on household consumption,the income mediation effect and the asset mediation effect are significant,and the income mediation effect is much larger than the asset mediation effect,but the savings mediation effect is only significant in the non-liquidity-constrained households.(3)The effect of monetary policy on the consumption of urban households is greater than that of rural households,and the consumption of middle-income households is greater than that of low-income households and high-income households.