陕西省本土新型冠状病毒肺炎病例隔离至确诊间隔时间的影响因素分析

Factors influencing the interval from isolation to diagnosis of local COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province

目的了解2021年12月9日至2022年1月20日陕西省本土新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行病学特征,分析隔离至确诊间隔时间的影响因素。方法收集2021年12月9日至2022年1月20日陕西省卫生健康委员会官方网站每日公布的COVID-19疫情信息,采用描述性统计学方法分析陕西省本土COVID-19的流行病学特征,采用MannWhitney U检验和Kruskal-Wallis H检验进行组间差异性比较,采用非条件Logistic回归模型分析隔离至确诊间隔时间的影响因素。结果陕西省本次疫情起始时间2021年12月9日,终止时间2022年1月20日,总体变化趋势呈“倒V形”,报告本土确诊病例数累计2080例,以轻症为主,发病率为5.26/10万,其中西安市病例最多,占总病例数的98.69%。报告病例主要集中在21~55岁人群中,男女比为1.19∶1。隔离至确诊间隔时间中位间隔3 d,最短间隔0 d,最长间隔21 d;非条件Logistic回归模型分析显示,病例发现方式是隔离至确诊间隔时间的影响因素,即与重点人群隔离方式相比,核酸筛查方式将使确诊病例晚发现的发生风险降低89%(OR=0.11,95%CI:0.07-0.16)。结论病例发现方式是隔离至确诊间隔时间的影响因素。在面临近期奥密克戎于国内本土蔓延加剧的情况下,准确快速地识别发现确诊病例既可以降低疫情扩散的风险,又可以为患者的治疗争取更多的时间和主动,是遏制疫情向本土扩散的关键。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province from December 9,2021 to January 20,2022,and analyze the factors influencing the interval from isolation to diagnosis.Methods We collected the data of local COVID-19 cases from December 9,2021 to January 20,2022 published on the official website of Health Commission of Shaanxi Province.Descriptive statistical method was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province.Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis H test were used to compare the differences between groups.The unconditional Logistic regression model was applied to analyze the factors influencing the interval between isolation and diagnosis.Results The outbreak of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province started on December 9,2021 and ended on January 20,2022.The overall change trend of the outbreak showed an“inverted V”shape.A total of 2,080 confirmed local cases were reported,and the main type of disease was mild,with an incidence rate of 5.26/100,000.Xi’an had the most cases,accounting for98.69%of the total.The reported cases were mainly concentrated in people aged 21 to 55 years old,with a male-to-female sex ratio of 1.19∶1.The median interval from isolation to diagnosis was 3 days,the shortest interval being 0 day and the longest interval being 21 days.Unconditional Logistic regression model analysis showed that the way of finding cases was the factor influencing the interval from isolation to diagnosis.Compared with the way of isolation of the key population,the way of the nucleic acid screening could reduce the risk of late detection of confirmed cases by 89%(OR=0.11,95%CI:0.07-0.16).Conclusion The way of finding cases is the factor influencing the interval from isolation to diagnosis.In the face of the recent intensification of the spread of Omicron variant in China's Mainland,accurate and rapid identification and detection of confirmed cases can not only reduce the risk of the spread of the epidemic,but also endeavor more time and initiative for the treatment of patients,which is the key to curbing the spread of the epidemic.