济南市区四大泉群流量演变规律及影响因素

Analysis on Flow Evolution Law and Influencing Factors of Four Spring Groups in Jinan Urban Area

基于2010—2020年济南市区四大泉群泉水出流量、地下水位及降雨量等数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验、Pettitt检验和Pearson相关系数等方法,开展泉水流量、地下水位和降雨量的突变、整体变化趋势及两者相关性研究。结果表明:趵突泉、五龙潭和黑虎泉泉群均存在突变时间,突变时间分别为2014年8月、2017年8月和2017年3月,且突变前后及整体都呈现出显著下降趋势;珍珠泉泉群未发生突变,整体为不显著的上升趋势;四大泉群之间存在中、低程度的相关性,趵突泉泉流量与趵突泉地下水位中度相关,且趵突泉地下水位的突变时间早于趵突泉泉流量的突变时间;降雨整体呈现上升趋势,不存在突变时间;人类活动是泉水流量呈减少趋势和发生突变的主要影响因素。

Based on the data of spring flowing,groundwater level and rainfall of four major spring groups in Jinan from 2010 to 2020,the abrupt change,overall change trend and correlation of spring flowing,groundwater level and rainfall were studied by using Mann-Kendall test,Pettitt test and Pearson correlation coefficient.The results show that there are abrupt changes in Baotu Spring group,Wulong Tan spring group and Heihu Spring Group in August 2014,August 2017 and March 2017,respectively,and the whole spring group showed a significant downward trend before and after the abrupt changes.There is no abrupt change in Zhenzhu Spring group,and the overall trend is not significant.There is a medium and low degree correlation among the four spring groups.The flow of Baotu Spring is moderately correlated with the groundwater level of Baotu Spring,and the abrupt change time of the groundwater level of Baotu Spring is earlier than that of Baotu Spring.Rainfall shows an overall upward trend,and there is no abrupt change.Human activities are the main factors affecting the decrease trend and mutation of spring flow.