林业碳汇政策对林业增汇的影响与启示

The Effect of Forestry Carbon Sinks Policies on Forestry Incremental Carbon Sinks and Its Implications

梳理各类林业碳汇政策特征,基于Faustmann-Hartman基本原理构建决策概念模型,揭示不同林业碳汇政策对林业增汇的影响机理,从政策实施难易程度与成本等角度对不同类型林业碳汇政策进行评估分析。结果表明:面积补贴的实施成本较低、难度较小,但林业增汇效果较低;碳汇量补贴的实施成本与难度较高,但林业增汇效果较好;林业碳汇交易较为灵活,但实施成本较高,现有政策下的林业增汇效果积极但不显著;林业碳税的实施成本较高,且实施过程容易受阻,林业增汇效果尚未确定;“碳汇量补贴+林业碳税”的实施成本较高、难度较大,但林业增汇效果较好。最后,提出了林业增汇政策选择与建议:扩大林业碳汇范围与比例、降低林业碳汇计量监测成本、建立基于碳汇量的补贴政策、建立“碳汇量补贴+林业碳税”的林业碳汇政策体系等优化中国林业碳汇政策工具的建议。

⑴Background——The goal of“dual carbon”has become a major strategic choice for China,but its realization process faces great challenges.How to make use of different forestry carbon sinks policies to increase forestry carbon sinks and realize the“dual carbon”goal at a minimum cost is the key and difficult point of the current social attentions.⑵Methods——Based on the basic principle of the Faustmann-Hartman model,forests managers make decisions on forests management behaviors to maximize the benefits of forestlands.A decision model of forests management behaviors is established to explain the mechanism of different forestry carbon sinks policies on forestry incremental carbon sinks.In addition,on the basis of reviewing the existing research literatures,the difficulties and costs of implementing different types of forestry carbon sinks policies are analyzed by comparative analysis and qualitative analysis.⑶Results——The implementation difficulties,costs and their effects on increasing forestry carbon sinks of different forestry carbon sinks policies are different.In terms of implementation difficulties,the area subsidy is relatively simple,and the carbon sinks subsidy is more difficult to implement.Forestry carbon sinks trading is flexible and feasible.The design of forestry carbon tax rate in the early stage is complicated,and it can be implemented on a large scale in the later stage,but it is easy to be opposed by forests managers.It is difficult to implement the policy of“carbon sinks subsidy+forestry carbon tax”.In terms of the effect of increasing forestry carbon sinks,the effect of carbon sinks subsidy and“carbon sinks subsidy+forestry carbon tax”is better.The effect of increasing forestry carbon sinks of forestry carbon sinks trading is positive but not significant,and the effect of area subsidy is low.The existing researches have not reached a unanimous conclusion on the effect of only implementing forestry carbon tax.Therefore,taking the above three perspectives into consideration,in the short term,the government should continue to promote and improve the policies of forestry carbon sinks trading and area subsidy.In the long run,the government should introduce carbon sinks subsidy and forestry carbon tax,gradually transition the area subsidy to carbon sinks subsidy,and establish the forestry carbon sinks policy system of“carbon sinks subsidy+forestry carbon tax”.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——Based on the above analysis of different forestry carbon sinks policies in China,the following policy suggestions are put forward:First,improve the existing forestry carbon sinks into the carbon market trading mechanism as soon as possible,and further expand the scopes and proportions of forestry carbon sinks.Second,improve the forestry carbon sinks methodology.Based on digital technology,monitor the dynamics of forests management and carbon sinks profits and losses in real time,reduce the monitoring cost of forestry carbon sinks metering,and establish the risk prevention mechanism for forestry carbon sinks projects.Third,improve the existing ecological compensation policies,implement a precise subsidy mechanism,increase various types of subsidy measures such as cash subsidies and tax breaks,and consider introducing subsidy policies based on carbon sinks.Fourth,explore and gradually establish a mixed policy of“carbon sinks subsidy+forestry carbon tax”.