政治关系、经济增长率对中国在欧洲OFDI的影响——基于33个欧洲国家面板数据的实证研究

The Impact of Political Relations and Economic Growth Rate on China's OFDI in Europe—An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of 33 European Countries

欧洲是中国重要的投资目的地,近年来因其内部政治格局调整、经济增速放缓,使中国对欧洲OFDI的风险增大。文章选取33个欧洲国家2010年—2019年面板数据,构建固定效应模型探讨双边政治关系及经济增长率对中国在欧洲OFDI的影响。结果表明:良好的双边政治关系不仅能够促进中国OFDI,还能减弱东道国监管对中国OFDI的不利影响;东道国经济增长率可通过调节市场规模对中国OFDI的正向影响,进而促进中国OFDI;中国对东道国出口额、东道国市场规模、东道国税收负担对中国OFDI均具有显著影响;同时,中国OFDI存在地区异质性和经济体异质性,表明中国对不同地区或不同经济体进行直接投资的动机和目标差异较大。今后应进一步巩固和深化双边政治关系,积极构建并逐步完善中国OFDI安全审查机制,助力中国对欧洲OFDI持续增长。

Europe is an important investment destination for China.In recent years,the adjustment of its internal political pattern and the slowdown of its economic growth have increased China´s risk of OFDI in Europe.This paper selects panel data of 33 European countries from 2010 to 2019 to build a fixed effect model to explore the impact of bilateral political relations and economic growth rate on China´s OFDI in Europe.The results show that good bilateral political relations can not only promote China´s OFDI,but also weaken the adverse impact of the host country´s regulatory quality on China´s OFDI;The host country´s economic growth rate promotes China´s OFDI by adjusting the positive impact of market size on China´s OFDI;China´s export volume,host country´s market size and tax burden have a significant impact on China´s OFDI.At the same time,China´s OFDI has regional heterogeneity and economic heterogeneity,which indicates that China´s direct investment in different regions or economies has different priorities.In the future,we should further consolidate and deepen bilateral political relations,build and gradually improve China´s OFDI security review mechanism,and help China´s OFDI towards Europe continue to heat up.