政策性农业保险能引导农业碳减排吗?

Can policy-supported agricultural insurance guide agricultural carbon emission reduction?

基于2005—2019年的省级面板数据,以政策性农业保险试点构造渐进双重差分模型,探讨政策性农业保险对农业碳排放的影响。研究结果表明,相比其他地区,政策性农业保险对试点地区的农业碳排放具有明显的抑制效应。该结论在平行趋势检验、工具变量法、安慰剂检验等多种检验方法之后依旧稳健。进一步研究表明,生产专业化与农业技术进步是政策性农业保险抑制农业碳排放的主要路径;尽管经营规模扩张有利于农业碳减排,但政策性农业保险并未明显推动经营规模扩张;相比其他地区,在粮食主产区和东部地区,政策性农业保险的减碳效应更为明显。

Based on the provincial(including municipalities and autonomous regions)panel data from 2005 to 2019,the influence of policy-supported agricultural insurance on agricultural carbon emission reduction has been exploded by constructing a time-varying difference-in-differences model from pilot project of policy-supported agricultural insurance.The research shows that policy-supported agricultural insurance has an obvious inhibitory effect on carbon emission in the pilot districts.The result still remains after various tests such as the parallel trend test,the instrumental variable method,and the placebo test.Further study shows that the specialization of production and the progress of agricultural technology are the main ways to restrain agricultural carbon emission by policy-supported agricultural insurance.Although expansion of the operation scale contributes to agricultural carbon emission reduction,policy-supported agricultural insurance could not significantly promote operation scale expansion.Compared with other regions,the effect of policy-supported agricultural insurance on carbon reduction is more obvious in the main grain-producing areas and eastern regions.