信贷宽松、房价上涨与家庭杠杆率上升——基于OECD国家面板门槛模型的实证检验

Credit Relaxation,House Price Rise and Increase in Household Leverage--An Empirical Test of Panel Threshold Model of OECD Countries

文章构建面板门槛模型,利用2000—2018年OECD国家面板数据,实证分析了房价上涨对家庭杠杆率的影响。实证结果发现:当信贷宽松,即利率低于门槛值时,房价上涨导致家庭杠杆率过快增长,反之,家庭杠杆率增长缓慢。家庭财富的增加提高了家庭的负债需求,家庭消费的跨期均衡抑制了杠杆率的上升。为促进金融稳定和经济长期增长,OECD国家普遍实施了去杠杆化政策。OECD国家的发展经验对于同样面临家庭杠杆率问题的中国来说,具有十分重要的借鉴价值。

This paper constructs a panel threshold model,and uses the panel data of OECD countries from 2000 to 2018 to make an empirical analysis of the impact of house prices rise on household leverage.The empirical results prove that when the credit is relaxed,that is,the interest rate is lower than the threshold value,the house price rise leads to the excessive growth of household leverage,otherwise,the growth of household leverage is slower.The growth of household wealth increases the demand of household debt,and the intertemporal equilibrium of household consumption restrains the rise of leverage.In order to promote financial stability and long-term economic growth,OECD countries have implemented deleveraging policies.The development experience of OECD countries has a very important reference value for China,which also faces the problem of household leverage.