中国区域经济空间俱乐部收敛与增长影响因素

Influencing Factors for Convergence and Growth of Regional Economic Spatial Clubs in China

对区域经济增长的空间收敛俱乐部进行识别,并对不同俱乐部的经济增长动能进行探析,探索性空间数据分析方法和非线性时变因子模型log-t检验发现,目前我国区域经济形成了包含京、津、沪、苏、浙等13个省市且主要分布在东部沿海和中部的经济高水平俱乐部,包含豫、晋、青、桂、川等18个省区,且主要分布在中、西部及东北的经济低水平俱乐部。从区域经济协调发展的视角来看,需着力提升河北、安徽的经济增长水平,同时重视发挥湖北、重庆的经济辐射能力,并加大内蒙古、辽宁对东北地区的引领力度和带动作用。空间计量模型分析显示,工业发展给高水平俱乐部和低水平俱乐部带来的直接效应(系数)高达0.610和0.313且显著,是促进区域经济增长的最重要驱动力;市场活力、物质资本、科技创新、对外开放给低水平俱乐部带来的总效应(系数)显著为正,是促进低水平俱乐部成员经济增长的主要动力。

In order to accelerate the formation of a pattern of coordinated regional economic development in China and explore the driving forces of coordinated regional economic development,this paper identifies the spatial convergence club of regional economic growth and excavates the economic growth mechanism of different clubs.Combining exploratory spatial data analysis method and log-t test of nonlinear time-varying factor model,it is found that China’s regional economy has formed a high level economic club in 13 regions including Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang,which are mainly distributed in the east coast and the central region,and a low level economic club in 18 regions including Henan,Shanxi,Qinghai,Guizhou and Sichuan,which are mainly distributed in the middle,west and northeast regions.From the perspective of economic zone construction,it is necessary to enhance the economic growth level of Hebei and Anhui,pay attention to the economic radiation ability of Hubei and Chongqing,and strengthen the leading role of Inner Mongolia and Liaoning in northeast China.Based on the analysis of the spatial econometric model,the direct effect coefficients of industrial development on high-level clubs and low-level clubs are as high as 0.610 and 0.313,which is the most important driving force to promote regional economic growth.Market vitality,material capital,scientific and technological innovation and opening to the outside world makes the total effect coefficient of the low-level club significantly positive,which is the key factor to promote the economic growth of the low-level club members.