新阶段全球半导体供应链重构及其思考

Reconfiguration of Global Semiconductor Supply Chain atthe New Stage and Its Thinking

半导体攸关国家安危,百年未有之大变局中的诸多因素诱发第四次全球半导体供应链重构。梳理了前三次全球半导体供应链重构的过程,并基于系统动力学、演化经济学等理论构建了产品—企业—区域—全球(PERG)分析框架,探讨了第四次全球半导体供应链重构的原因及趋势。虽然中国内地半导体产品和企业实力与美欧日韩及中国台湾地区具有很大差距,但全球影响力已上升为全球第二梯队。第四次全球半导体供应链重构由美国主导,但中国内地将成为第四次全球半导体供应链重构的核心力量。中国内地应做好半导体产业发展的长期规划,发挥新型举国体制和现代市场机制的作用,从PERG四个方面全面发力提升自身实力,稳定半导体领域外资和台资,持续推动本土替代,深度嵌入美欧日韩及中国台湾地区的全球半导体供应链。

The semiconductor industry is crucial to national security,and profound changes unseen in a century have triggered the fourth reconfiguration of global semiconductor supply chain.This paper reviews the process of the first three times of reconfiguration of global semiconductor supply chain,and constructs a product-enterprise-region-globe(PERG)framework to analyze the reasons and trends of the fourth reconfiguration of global semiconductor supply chain based on theories such as system dynamics and evolutionary economics.In terms of semiconductor products and enterprise strength,the Chinese mainland lags behind the US,Europe,Japan,South Korea,and even Chinese Taiwan,but its global influence have risen to the second tier globally.The fourth reconfiguration of global semiconductor supply chain is dominated by the US,but the Chinese mainland will become the core.The Chinese mainland should make a long-term plan for the development of the semiconductor industry.Specifically,it should give full play to the role of the new system for mobilizing resources nationwide and modern market mechanism,and comprehensively enhance its own strength from the four aspects of product,enterprise,region,and the globe(PERG).Moreover,it should stabilize the investment from foreign countries and Chinese Taiwan in the semiconductor field,and continue to promote local substitution.As a result,the Chinese mainland will deeply integrate into the global semiconductor supply chain dominated by the US,Europe,Japan,South Korea,and Chinese Taiwan.