经济韧性测度及其对旅游经济的影响研究

The Research on the Influence of Economic Resilience on Tourism Economic Development

经济韧性反映了经济系统对抗冲击的能力,强调一个国家或地区在遭受外部冲击时进行适应性调整的动态过程。在旅游领域,经济韧性是目的地恢复系统的重要组成部分。文章测度了31个省份的经济韧性指数,在此基础上探究我国区域经济韧性对旅游产业发展的影响效应。研究发现,区域经济韧性水平的高低会影响到旅游经济的健康运行,区域经济韧性及其分项指标均对旅游经济发展有显著的正向作用。异质性检验结果表明,东中部地区的经济韧性对旅游经济的影响更为显著,这表明经济韧性虽然可以对旅游产业发展形成外部“溢出”影响,但是也需要产业自身发展基础的夯实。针对以上结论,提出了增强旅游产业抵御风险、促进旅游产业发展的相关建议,包括提升经济韧性水平,缩小区域间的韧性差异以及加强旅游产业发展自我建设,增强抵御风险的能力,改变发展中的低效路径依赖,实现发展路径创新。

Economic resilience reflects the ability of an economic system to withstand shocks and emphasizes the dynamic process of regional adaptation to external shocks.In tourism industry,economic resilience is an important part of the destination recovery system.The paper measures the economic resilience index of 31 provinces,and then explores the impact of regional economic resilience on the development of tourism industry.The results show that the level of regional economic resilience will affect the healthy operation of tourism economy,and regional economic resilience and its sub-indexes have significant positive effects on the development of tourism economy.Heterogeneity test results show that the economic resilience of the eastern and central regions has a more significant impact on the tourism economy,which indicates that although economic resilience can form an external"spillover"impact on the development of the tourism industry,it also needs to consolidate the development foundation of the industry itself.Based on the conclusions,the authors puts forward some suggestions to resist risks and promote the development of tourism industry,including improving the level of economic resilience,narrowing the differences of resilience between regions,strengthening the self-construction of the tourism industry,enhancing the ability to resist risks,changing the dependence of inefficient paths in the development,and realizing the innovation of development paths.