中国碳市场回顾与最优行业纳入顺序展望(2023)

Reviews of China’s Carbon Market and Prospects of Its Optimal Rolling Out Plan(2023)

截至2022年12月31日,全球共34个碳市场正在运行,国际碳市场短期内不确定性增加,但长期发展向好。国内碳市场建设更加规范,碳配额累计成交额达104.74亿元,累计成交量达2.29亿吨,价格波动性相较于试点碳市场最低;试点碳市场碳配额累计线上成交额达106.40亿元,累计线上成交量达3.98亿吨,价格水平较2021年提升了约64%。近年来国内企业对全国碳市场启动的响应明显。针对全国碳市场建设计划内和计划外行业模拟分析的结果显示,下一阶段全国碳市场扩大覆盖范围时的行业优先纳入顺序建议为:水泥制造、炼钢、平板玻璃制造、非木竹浆制造、木竹浆制造、其他基础化学原料制造、氮肥制造等计划内行业,以及热力生产和供应、铁合金冶炼、其他专用化学产品制造、黑色金属铸造、水泥制品制造、炼铁、其他水泥类似制品制造、砼结构构件制造、化学试剂和助剂制造、燃气生产和供应业等计划外行业。预计全国碳市场2023年以后将逐步纳入更多行业,增加碳金融产品种类,建立统一规范的碳排放统计核算体系,开始设置碳配额有偿分配比例。

This report pointed out that as China’s carbon market enters its second performance cycle in 2022, the pilot carbon markets and national carbon market are making steady progress. The development of the pilot carbon markets is relatively stable with few fluctuations in trading volume compared with that in 2021. The national carbon market has been operating steadily, and the carbon price has increased by 60%compared with that in 2021. Domestic enterprises respond positively to the carbon market, and the whole society pays close attention to the construction of carbon market. The report suggested that in the next phase, considering the emission abatement potentials and the readiness for participating in the carbon market, China’s national carbon market should preferentially include the following sectors: cement, steel, glass,pulp, chemical material, nitrogenous fertilizer, and aluminum smelting.