山东省玉米螟灾害风险评估与区划研究

Research on risk assessment and zoning of corn borer disaster in Shandong Province

针对山东省农业病虫害的危害评估及预防需求,对近年来山东省玉米螟(Pyrausta nubilalis)灾害进行风险评估与区划。结合中华人民共和国农业行业标准——《玉米螟测报技术规范》(NY/T 1611—2008)及山东省植物保护总站的玉米螟发生程度分级地方标准,在对山东省近13年玉米螟发生情况进行统计和数据提取的基础上,提出了以被害株率为主要划分因子及百株虫量为辅助因子的玉米螟发生程度分级准则,并以山东省16个地市为单元,进行了玉米螟的发生程度定级与频数统计;在以玉米螟发生频数为致灾因子、玉米播种面积及气象条件为孕灾环境因子、玉米产量为承载体因子的指标体系建立的基础上,进行了单指标因子风险区划的构建,并通过归一化处理,计算出综合风险指数,并根据综合风险指数生成山东省玉米螟综合风险区划。结果表明,山东省玉米螟灾害风险主要发生在该省中西部地区,其中,菏泽市为高风险区,德州市、潍坊市、滨州市及聊城市为较高风险区。

In view of the damage assessment and prevention needs of agricultural pests and diseases in Shandong Province,the risk assessment and zoning of corn borer disasters in Shandong Province in recent years were conducted.The technical specification with the agricultural industry standard of the People’s Republic of China Technical Specitication for Corn Borer Detection and Reporting(NY/T 1611—2008)and the local standard for grading the occurrence degree of corn borer from Shandong Plant Protection Station were combined.Based on the statistics and data extraction of the occurrence of corn borer in Shandong Province in the past 13 years,the classification criteria of the occurrence degree of corn borer were put forward,which took the rate of damaged plants as the main dividing factor and the number of pests on 100 plants as the auxiliary factor.The classification and frequency statistics of the occurrence degree of corn borer were carried out in 16 prefectural cities in Shandong Province;based on the index system,which took the occurrence frequency of corn borer as the disaster factor,the maize sown area and meteorological conditions as the disaster environment factor,and the maize yield as the carrier factor,the risk regionalization of single index factor was constructed.The comprehensive risk index was calculated through the normalization process,and the comprehensive risk regionalization of corn borer in Shandong Province was generated according to the comprehensive risk index.The results showed that the risk of corn borer in Shandong Province mainly occurred in the central and western parts of the province,among which,Heze City was a high-risk area,and Dezhou City,Weifang City,Binzhou City and Liaocheng City were higher-risk areas.