迁西梨树花期预报及梨花观赏旅游气象指数研究

Study on the forecast of pear blossoming period and the meteorological index of pear ornamental tourism in Qianxi

利用2008—2021年迁西梨树花期观测资料和相关气象资料,计算梨树始花期与气象因子的时间相关系数,采用线性预报和逐步回归方法建立迁西梨树花期的线性预报模型,并确定了迁西县梨花观赏旅游气象指数。结果表明,梨树始花期与有效积温、气温和地温密切相关,与12月至次年3月≥0℃积温、3月平均最低气温、3月平均地温呈负相关;以优化预报因子后建立的逐步回归预报模型最优;综合梨树花期、气象条件、出行便利程度和人体舒适度等因素,确定了迁西县梨花观赏旅游气象指数,能够对园林管理、旅游开发和公众赏花提供重要的指导作用。

Based on the observation data of the flowering period of pear trees and relevant meteorological data during 2008—2021,the time correlation coefficient between the first flowering period of pear trees and meteorological factors was calculated,the linear prediction model of Qianxi pear flowering period was established by using linear prediction and stepwise regression methods,and the meteorological index of pear flower ornamental tourism in Qianxi County was determined.The results showed that,the initial flowering period of pear trees was closely related to the effective accumulated temperature,air temperature and ground temperature,it was negatively correlated with accumulated temperature≥0℃from December to March of the following year,mean minimum temperature in March and mean ground temperature in March,and the stepwise regression prediction model established after optimizing the prediction factors was the best.Taking into account the flowering period of pear trees,meteorological conditions,travel convenience,human comfort and other factors,the meteorological index for pear blossom ornamental tourism in Qianxi County was determined,which could provide important guidance for landscape management,tourism development and public flower appreciation.