基于灰色预测的京津冀地区农产品物流需求分析

Analysis of agricultural products logistics demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on grey forecast

运用MATLAB软件,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型,以京津冀地区2005—2019年的农产品产量和农村居民农产品消耗量作为原始数据,预测出农产品物流需求并对京津冀地区农产品物流需求进行科学分析。结果表明,北京市农产品物流需求呈逐渐下降的趋势,截至2024年将降低至228万t,而天津市以及河北省的农产品需求量则稳定上升,尤其是河北省农产品物流需求将在2024年增长至6761万t,而这一现象很可能与疏解非首都功能的政策有关,在此政策的实施前提下对津冀两地提出有效的农产品物流发展建议。

Using MATLAB software,adopting the gray GM(1,1)model,the agricultural product output and agricultural product consumption of rural residents in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2019 were taken as the original data to predict the agricultural product logistics demand and make a scientific analysis of the agricultural product logistics demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results showed that the demand for agricultural products logistics in Beijing City showed a gradual decline trend and would decrease to 2.28 million tons by 2024,while the demand for agricultural products in Tianjin City and Hebei Province increased steadily.In particular,the demand for agricultural products logistics in Hebei Province would increase to 67.61 million tons in 2024,which may be related to the policy of dissolving non-capital functions.Under the premise of the implementation of this policy,the effective development suggestions of agricultural products logistics in Tianjin City and Hebei Province were put forward.