舰船备件利用率的概率模型及适用性分析

Analysis on Probability Model and Applicability of Spare Parts Utilization for Warship Equipment

对舰船备件利用率的概率模型及其工程意义进行研究。首先,针对舰船备件供应保障与随舰携行配置的实际需要,在假设备件服从指数分布的情况下,从备件利用率的统计定义出发,推导出备件利用率的概率模型,建立了备件利用率与备件保障概率之间的定量关系;其次,研究了备件利用率的性质及其变化规律,从理论上解释了造成大部分随舰备件利用率不高的原因,指出舰船备件利用率的适用性及其工程意义;为方便工程使用给出了基于备件保障概率的利用率工程估计方法,并通过数值计算方法分析了工程估计的精度,说明该工程估计方法的可行性;最后,结合实例说明工程估计方法的应用场景。

This paper studies the problem of calculating the spare part utilization of a single component in the process of shipboard spare parts configuration. First of all,according to the actual needs of ship spare parts supply guarantee and ship carrying configuration, the probability model of spare parts utilization rate is derived from the statistical definition of spare parts utilization rate,and the quantitative relationship between spare parts utilization rate and spare parts support probability is established. Secondly,the paper studies the nature and variation rule of the utilization rate of spare parts, explains the reason of the low utilization rate of most of the spare parts on board the ship theoretically, and points out the applicability and engineering significance of the utilization rate of spare parts on the ship. In order to facilitate the engineering use, an engineering estimation method based on the probability of spare parts support is presented,and the accuracy of the engineering estimation is analyzed by numerical calculation method, and the feasibility of the engineering estimation method is illustrated. Finally, the application scenarios of project estimation method are illustrated with examples.