老龄化背景下中国西部丘陵县城镇化特征与趋势研究——以四川省岳池县为例

Research on the Characters and Trend of Urbanization in Western Hilly Counties on the Period of Aging of Population:A Case Study of Yuechi County,Sichuan Province

在西部丘陵县劳动人口长期大量外流,并叠加日益严重的人口老龄化社会背景下,为探究中国西部丘陵县在老龄化时代下的城镇化新特征和新趋势,以四川省岳池县为例,基于第七次人口普查数据,并结合大量的问卷调查和实地调研访谈数据展开研究。研究发现:一是岳池县虽然城镇化水平不高,但老龄化乡村已没有富余劳动力,上阶段支撑城镇化发展的“教育城镇化”和“返乡置业”因素都已减弱,未来可能进入老人进城养老为主的城镇化阶段。二是“60后”退休人群、高龄返乡人群将促使老龄人口继续增长,同时年轻人流出的现象还将持续,育龄人口大量流出使得县内新生代儿童的数量趋于下降,人口将进一步走向“倒金字塔”结构。三是展望到2035年的城镇化进程,未来县域人口总数将面临收缩,城乡养老职能将持续显著增强,而劳动力短缺的问题会明显加剧,尤其是丘区农业人口面临缺少“接班人”的风险,城乡经济社会发展的基础将深刻变化。最后,研究建议应加强县级养老服务职能,建设养老型的城镇和乡村;要重视人力资源积累,培养高素质的城镇、农村的劳动者;应创新规划建设模式,适应动态集中的城乡居民点格局。研究有助于推动以县城为重要载体的新型城镇化高质量发展和国家乡村振兴战略建设。

Under the background of the long-term and massive outflow of the surplus labor force and the increasingly serious population aging in the western hilly counties,taking Yuechi County of Sichuan Province as an example,the research focuses on the new features and trends of urbanization with the data of the seventh national population census,a large number of questionnaires and field survey interview data.The research conclusions are as follows.Firstly,Yuechi County,as a representative of the western hilly county,has a low population base,a large outflow and a relatively backward economic development level.Affected by the terrain,the villages are small in scale,scattered in layout,and in the process of continuous withdrawal and consolidation.Although the level of urbanization in the county is not high,the growth rate is not slow.The reason is that the withdrawal and merger of schools promote students to enter the urban and indirectly improve the level of urbanization.Secondly,Yuechi is a typical aging area,especially in rural areas.There is no surplus labor force in the countryside.Although the level of urbanization in the county is only 40%,there is no potential for labor transfer into the urban.Yuechi’s consumption economy is obvious,but because the newly flowing“post-90s”people no longer remit money to their hometown,the“home purchase”factor that used to support urban consumption has gradually shrunk.Thirdly,the study analyzes the future population trends from the perspective of different generations of population.In terms of the elderly population,there will be a large number of“after 60”people entering the retirement age in the future,and there will also be out-of-town people returning home for retirement,and the proportion of the elderly will also increase.In terms of the working population,the outflow of young people will continue,and the labor force will face a long-term contraction trend.With regard to children,the potential of“education urbanization”has also been weaken when the village primary schools have been basically withdrawn.Finally,on this basis,we look forward to the long-term trend of county urbanization by 2035.From the perspective of quantity,the total population of the county will shrink significantly.Affected by the death of the rural elderly,the statistical level of urbanization will be raised to a higher level.From the perspective of the process,the elderly will become the main body of population urbanization in the future,and some young people will be lost.In addition,affected by the outflow of child-bearing age population,the number of outflow population will continue to increase due to higher natural growth rate.The contradiction of the county population structure will be more prominent:the pressure on the elderly will be further intensified;the labor force faces the double pressure of contraction and aging;there are few young people in hilly villages.After retirement,the elderly farmers will face the problem of lack of“successors”in agricultural labor force.For hilly agriculture that is difficult to mechanized,it will face the potential risk of insufficient manpower.For the new features and trends of population urbanization in hilly counties in western China in the age of aging,the following suggestions are put forward.Firstly,strengthen the functions of county-level elderly care services and build elderly care cities and towns and villages.Secondly,attention should be paid to the accumulation of human resources and train high-quality urban and rural workers.The third is to innovate the planning and construction mode to adapt to the dynamic and centralized pattern of urban and rural settlements.This study is of great significance to promote the high-quality development of new urbanization with county towns and the revitalization strategy of villages construction.