沈阳市市区与郊区边界层高度特征分析及预测研究

采用沈阳地区2019年激光雷达监测网反演的边界层高度(PBL)数据,对其时空变化特征及频率分布特征进行研究,通过多因子统计预报技术预测PBL并验证。结果表明:沈阳市PBL冬季最低、春季最高,夏秋两季PBL相差不大;各季节PBL均值最高的点位始终出现在市区。沈阳市PBL14:00相对较高,08:00和20:00均较低,主要受到日变化的影响;从分布区域看,PBL较高的区域同样主要出现在市区,较低的区域主要出现在北部郊区。市区PBL分布范围较广,在0.2~1.8 km高度范围均有出现,出现频率较高的PBL主要分布在0.4~1.0 km范围内;郊区PBL主要分布在0.6~1.0 km;PBL在1.0 km以下时,郊区点位对应的PM2.5浓度明显高于市区。多因子统计预报预测的PBL在以本地污染为主的污染过程中有较好的预测效果,对于空气质量的预报预警有一定的指示意义。

Through the boundary layer height (PBL)data of the lidar monitoring network in Shenyang in 2019,the characteristics of PBL spatio-temporal variation and frequency distribution were studied;and PBL was predicted and verified by multi-factor statistical forecast technique.The results showed that PBL was the lowest in winter and the highest in spring,and there was little difference in summer and autumn,influenced by diurnal variation,PBL was higher at 14:00 pm than 8:00 am and 20:00 pm,the PBL in city center is higher than that of suburbs.The distributed range of PBLs is widely in the urban areas with the range of 0.2-1.8 km,and the PBLs are mainly distributed in the range of 0.4-1.0 km,while the suburban PBL is mainly distributed in 0.6-1.0 km;when PBL is less than 1.0 km,the PM2.5concentration at boundary stations is significantly higher than that in urban areas.The PBL inversion of multi-factor statistical forecast has a good prediction effect in the pollution process dominated by local pollution,which has certain indicative significance for the forecast and early warning of air quality.