财政分权、环境规制与工业绿色发展——基于动态空间杜宾模型的实证分析

Fiscal Decentralization, Environmental Regulation and Green Industrial Development:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Dubin Model of Dynamic Space

该文基于我国269个地级及以上城市2007—2019年空间面板数据,运用DEA-Malmquist指数分析法测算工业绿色发展效率,并通过构建动态空间杜宾模型,实证分析了财政分权、环境规制对工业绿色发展的影响及其区域差异。结果显示:我国工业绿色发展本身具有“时间惯性”和正向的空间溢出效应。财政分权抑制了工业绿色发展,环境规制与工业绿色发展存在非线性“U”型关系,环境规制下的财政分权仍显著抑制工业绿色发展。东部地区、中部地区和东北地区的财政分权、环境规制对工业绿色发展均存在显著负向影响,但西部地区不显著;财政分权与环境规制交互项在东北地区、中部地区对工业绿色发展均有显著负向影响,而在东部地区和西部地区均未通过显著性检验。

Based on the spatial panel data of 269 cities at prefecture-level and above in China from 2007 to2019, this paper uses the DEA-Malmquist index analysis method to measure the industrial green development and constructs a dynamic spatial Dubin model to empirically analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization and environmental regulation on industrial green development and its regional differences. The results show that:(1) China’s industrial green development itself has“time inertia” and positive spatial spillover effect;(2) Fiscal decentralization inhibits the green development of industry. There is a nonlinear U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and green development for industry. Fiscal decentralization under environmental regulation still significantly inhibits green development of industry. Fiscal decentralization and environmental regulation have a greater impact on industrial green development in the long run than in the short run;(3)Fiscal decentralization and environmental regulation have significant negative effects on industrial green development in China’s eastern, central and northeast regions, but not in the western region;The interaction term between fiscal decentralization and environmental regulation has a significant negative impact on industrial green development in northeast China and central China, but fails to pass the significance test in eastern and western China.