基于二次指数平滑法的能源分析预测方法

Energy Analysis and Prediction Method Based on Quadratic Exponential Smoothing

本文以北京市为例绘制能流图和碳流图以描述能量和碳的流动过程,采用二次指数平滑法实现对能源消耗及碳排放情况的预测分析。本文所述方法能够有效地对区域能源消费与碳排放情况进行分析预测,为能源电力系统低碳评价和转型提供技术支持。

Taking Beijing as an example,this paper draws energy flow and carbon flow diagrams to describe the flow process of energy and carbon.The quadratic exponential smoothing method is adopted to predict and analyze energy consumption and carbon emissions.The method described in this paper can provide technical support for low-carbon evaluation and transformation of energy and power systems.