广州自然资源监测预警机制与方法研究

Research on Monitoring and Early Warning Mechanism and Methodology of Natural Resources in Guangzhou

自然资源监测预警是推动自然资源治理重心由事后督查转向事前预警的关键。目前,自然资源监测预警以单要素为主,尚未确立系统性的自然资源监测预警机制与方法。通过梳理集成现有规程和研究中的要素指标,围绕数量、质量、生态3大方面,构建自然资源调查监测指标体系;通过趋势分析和风险评估2种方式的系统结合,设计自然资源风险预警机制与模型方法,综合划定风险预警分区。结果显示:广州自然资源数量侵占高风险区主要位于城市建成区周边,质量退化高风险区主要分布在花都区中北部和白云区东南部,生态功能退化高风险区主要分布在从化区西南部和黄埔区南部;提出监测预警结果在国土空间规划中的应用路径,包括实施差异化的风险分级监管,构建自然资源常态化监管机制,打造“数据—规划—决策”管理服务闭环,实现自然资源“监测—预警—调控”一体化。

Natural resources monitoring and early warning is the key to promote the focus of natural resource governance from post-event supervision to pre-event warning.At present,natural resources monitoring and early warning is based on single elements,and a systematic mechanism and method has not been established.This study constructs a natural resource monitoring index system by combining and integrating the elemental indicators in existing protocols and studies,focusing on three major aspects:quantity,quality and ecology.And then,through the systematic combination of both trend analysis and risk assessment,the study designs natural resource risk early warning mechanisms and model methods,and comprehensively delineates risk early warning zones.The results show that the high-risk areas of natural resources encroachment in Guangzhou are mainly located around the built-up areas of the city,the high-risk areas of quality degradation are mainly distributed in the north-central Huadu District and the southeastern Baiyun District,and the high-risk areas of ecological function degradation are mainly distributed in the southwestern Conghua District and the southern Huangpu District.The application paths of monitoring and early warning results in territorial spatial planning are also proposed,including the implementation of differentiated risk-grading supervision,the construction of a permanent supervision mechanism for natural resources,and the creation of a closed loop of data-planning-decision management services,which will realize the integration of natural resources monitoring,warning and controlling.