一种特殊的运输模型及其在台风避险中的应用研究

A Special Transport Model and Its Application in Evacuation and Avoidance in Response to the Typhoon

中国是受台风影响最严重的国家之一,平均每年登陆的台风约有7个,台风登陆之前的人员避险转移是台风避险工作的重点难点。文中采用运输问题研究人员避险转移的优化,试图找出转移总里程最短的方案。考虑到人员的运输会使用交通工具,提出了考虑车辆载客量的运输问题(VCCTP),给出了计算精确解的整数规划模型。同时提出了计算近似解的“两阶段”算法,第一阶段用运输问题求解满载运输的情况,第二阶段用“床位优先”算法求解剩余人员的运输。通过模拟数据的验证,该启发式算法优于基于经验的“最近邻居”算法,平均节约了10%的总里程。问题规模大的时候,求解速度明显快于精确算法。基于“两阶段”算法的网页应用开发,也为台风避险中的人员转移提供了决策支持工具。

China is one of the countries most seriously affected by typhoons, with an average of about 7 typhoons making landfall each year.The evacuation of personnel before typhoon’s landing is a key and difficult problem.This paper adopts the transportation problem for the optimization of the evacuation of personnel, trying to find the scheme with the shortest total evacuation mileage.Considering that vehicles will be used in the transportation of people, this paper proposes a transportation problem that considers the passenger capacity, called Vehicle Capacity Cost Transportation Problem(VCCTP),and gives an integer programming model to calculate the exact solution.A “two-stage” algorithm for calculating the approximate solution is also proposed, the first stage uses the transportation problem to solve the situation of full load transportation, and the second stage uses the “bed-first” algorithm to solve the transportation of the remaining personnel.Validated by simulation data, the heuristic algorithm outperformed the experience-based “nearest neighbor” algorithm, saving an average of 10% of total mileage.When the problem scale is large, the solution speed is significantly faster than that of the exact algorithm.The development of a web applications based on the “two-stage” algorithm also provides decision support tools for personnel evacuation in response to typhoon.