中国人口老龄化风险分布的梯次结构及其动态演进

Echelon Structure and Dynamic Evolution of China’s Population Aging Risk Distribution

中国于21世纪初正式步入老龄化社会,并于2010年在东部地区首先出现了老龄化风险的集中分布。基于2010—2020年中国人口与经济社会发展的面板数据,利用PSR模型从压力、状态、响应三个维度构建评估指标,采用熵权TOPSIS、系统聚类等方法,对中国人口老龄化风险的水平、区域差异及其动态演进趋势进行分析。研究发现:老年人口比重、人口自然增长率与居民消费价格指数是构成中国人口老龄化风险系数的重要指标,中国人口老龄化风险呈现明显的“U”型分布和空间非均衡性特征。基于系统聚类分析,可将中国31个省份划分为五类风险梯度,其中广东省为我国老龄化风险的“洼地”,处于老年产业布局的“黄金期”,而吉林省则为老龄化风险的“高地”,面临着老龄工作的严峻挑战。中国人口老龄化风险水平呈中期减小、后期加剧的螺旋上升态势,表现出区域梯次分布不平衡现象:东北地区人口老龄化风险不断加深,绝对差异逐渐减小;东部、中部和西部地区人口老龄化风险整体呈先降后升的波动变化趋势,并伴随极化效应。在人口老龄化持续深化的重要背景下,厘清我国人口老龄化发展的现实状况,明晰其风险分布的梯次结构与演进的具体规律,对于掌握老龄工作重点、形成“老龄化风险梯次应对”的良好局面具有重要意义。

China officially entered an aging society in the early 21st century, and the concentrated distribution of aging risk first appeared in the eastern region in 2010. Based on the panel data of China’s population and economic and social development from 2010 to 2020, this paper uses PSR model to construct assessment indicators from three dimensions of pressure, state and response. Entropy weight TOPSIS and systematic clustering methods are used to analyze the risk level, regional differences and dynamic evolution trend of China’s population aging. The results show that: 1) The proportion of the elderly population, the natural growth rate of population and the consumer price index are the important indicators of the risk coefficient of population aging in China. The risk of population aging in China shows obvious U-shaped distribution and spatial imbalance. 2) Based on systematic cluster analysis, 31 provinces(municipalities, autonomous regions) in China can be divided into five risk gradients. Guangdong Province is the “depression” of aging risk in China, which is in the “golden period” of the layout of aging industry, while Jilin Province is the “highland” of aging risk, which is facing the severe challenge of aging risk. 3) The risk level of population aging in China shows a spiral trend of decreasing in the middle period and increasing in the later period, showing the imbalance of regional echelon distribution. The risk of population aging in Northeast China is deepening, and the absolute difference is decreasing gradually. The risk of population aging in the eastern, central and western regions shows a fluctuating trend of decreasing first and then increasing, accompanied by polarization effect. Under the background of the continuous deepening of population aging, it is of great significance to clarify the reality of the development of population aging and clarify the specific rules of its distribution echelon structure and evolution to master the key points of aging work and form a good situation of “coping with aging risk echelon”.