资源型城市空间冲突测度及其空间响应研究

Spatial conflict measurement in resource-based cities and spatial responses

科学诊断资源型城市空间冲突等级,厘清空间冲突变化与土地利用间的复杂关系,对城市转型发展、区域资源合理利用具有重要意义。论文基于山东省新泰市资源型城市特征,以生态系统服务价值和土地利用为视角,从空间压力、空间暴露性和空间风险响应维度构建空间冲突测度模型,并运用地理加权回归模型探讨了空间冲突的变化与土地利用调整间的关系。结果表明:(1)2009—2020年,新泰市空间冲突指数保持稳定,变化量仅为0.0018,且不同冲突等级的变化趋势不同;空间冲突格局呈圈层分布,由中心向四周等级逐渐减弱。(2)2009—2020年,新泰市平均土地利用动态度为23.14%,空间布局差异性显著,土地利用特征以耕地林化、土地整治、建设用地及生态用地扩张为主。(3)地理加权回归模型分析显示,土地利用动态度与空间冲突指数变化呈显著相关(P<0.01,R^(2)=0.8517),平均系数值为0.1381,且以正相关为主,表明新泰市土地利用调整对空间冲突的抑制产生了积极影响。研究可为区域土地合理利用、空间冲突治理及空间结构优化提供科学依据。

Scientifically diagnose the spatial conflict of resource-based cities and clarify the complex relationship between spatial conflict and land use are important for urban development transformation and rational use of regional resources.Based on the characteristics of resource-based cities,this study constructed a spatial conflict measurement model considering spatial pressure,spatial exposure,and spatial risk response dimensions with the perspective of land use and ecosystem service value,and explored the relationship between spatial conflict and land use using a geographically weighted regression model.The results indicate that:(1)From2009 to 2020,the spatial conflict index of Xintai City remained stable with a change of 0.0018 only.The change trends of different conflict levels varied.The spatial pattern was zonal,and the conflict level gradually decreased from the center to the peripheral areas.(2)From 2009 to 2020,the average land use dynamic degree of Xintai City was 23.14%,the spatial layout was significantly different,and the land use changes were mainly cultivated land conversion to woodland,land reclamation,expansion of construction land,and afforestation.(3)Based on the analysis of the geographically weighted regression model,the dynamic degree of land use was significantly correlated with the change of spatial conflict index(P<0.01,R^(2)=0.8517),and the average coefficient value was0.1381,dominated by positive correlation.The research provides a scientific basis for the rational use of regional land,governance of spatial conflicts,and optimization of spatial structure in the city.