常态化防疫背景下城市盗窃犯罪的时空演变及其机理研究——以浙江海宁市为例

Spatiotemporal evolution of urban theft crimes and mechanism in the context of regular COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control:A case study of Haining,Zhejiang

新冠疫情的爆发会对区域内犯罪数量产生显著影响。然而,常态化疫情防控是否显著改变了犯罪空间分布格局,仍然有待进一步的实证检验。论文选择始终采取常态化疫情防控措施的浙江海宁市中心城区,采用标准差椭圆、核密度估计方法,对2018年2月—2021年7月城市盗窃犯罪的时空格局演变特征及其机理进行研究。结果表明:(1)新冠疫情爆发后,研究区内盗窃犯罪月均数量较疫情前降幅达53%,并持续在100~200起之间波动,而其日内分布模式却没有明显变化;(2)2020年2月—2021年7月,研究区内盗窃犯罪热点较疫情前有明显减弱、减少,且其犯罪空间分布格局较为稳定;(3)针对疫情前的12个典型犯罪热点区域,其月均犯罪数量在疫情后的降幅在52%~78%之间,其分季度的时间演变模式存在明显差异;(4)根据日常活动理论和犯罪三角理论,常态化疫情防控中有7类具体措施可对各区域的犯罪产生较大影响。研究结果对于理解重大突发公共卫生事件下的犯罪空间演变规律和制定科学的犯罪防控策略均具有重要参考价值。

Existing studies show that the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on crime occurrences.However,it remains to be empirically examined whether the regular pandemic prevention and control measures in China can significantly affect the spatial patterns of crimes.To fill this gap,this study chosed the central urban area of Haining City in Zhejiang Province,which had taken the regular pandemic prevention and control measures,as the research area.Using standard deviation ellipse and kernel density estimation methods,this study examined the spatiotemporal patterns of theft crimes between February 2018 and July 2021in the study area.The results show that:(1)While there were no significant changes in the hourly patterns of theft crimes within a day,the monthly number of thefts in the study area decreased by an average of 53%after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and fluctuated between 100 to 200 thefts per month.The regular COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control measures had a long-term and stable inhibitory effect on the number of theft crimes in Haining City.(2)The intensity and amount of hotspots for theft crimes in the study area decreased significantly during February 2020 and July 2021 when compared with the pre-pandemic period,and the spatial distribution patterns of theft crimes were relatively stable.(3)For the 12 crime hotspots identified for the prepandemic period,the monthly number of crimes decreased between 52%and 78%on average after the outbreak while trajectories of their quarterly temporal changes differed significantly.The average crime drop for the 12hotspot areas were 63%,which was higher than that for the whole study area.(4)Seven crime-control measures were identified among the regular pandemic prevention and control measures based on the routine activity theory and the crime triangle theory.Functional type of place,geographic location,and pre-pandemic local governance ability all played an important role in affecting the actual crime-control effects of the seven regular COVID-19pandemic prevention and control measures.The results of this study are important for understanding the spatial evolution of crimes under the influence of major public health emergencies and for formulating scientific strategies for crime prevention and control.