基建投资、转移支付与资源空间错配——基于多区域一般均衡框架的讨论

Infrastructure Investment,Transfer Payment,and Resource Spatial Misallocation:Discussion Based on Multi-Region General Equilibrium Framework

在做好“六稳”工作、落实“六保”任务的要求下,探索转移支付机制对提高基建投资有效性,解决基建投资的空间错配,促进区域协调发展具有重要现实意义。通过建立包含不同转移支付机制的多区域动态一般均衡模型研究发现:(1)从区域增长与分配效应来看,与专项转移支付相比,一般性转移支付扶持下的基建投资可以挤入更多当地居民消费、私人投资与政府投资,进而更为有效地提高欠发达地区的发展水平。(2)通过大量专项转移支付项目加速欠发达地区基建投资,挤占当地政府转移支付的资源,使得转移支付没有达到效率最大化,增加地方政府的财政负担。(3)为了实现区域的公平发展,持续大规模地通过转移支付向欠发达地区增加基建投资反而成为区域间不健康竞争的砝码,没有达到效率最大化的同时,进一步陷入“投资—落后—再投资”的恶性循环,形成基建投资的空间错配。因此,合理规划对人口流出的欠发达地区转移支付的结构以及扶持政策才是谋求经济协调发展的可行之路。

Under the requirements of ensuring stability on six key fronts and implementing the task of maintaining security in six key areas,exploring the transfer payment mechanism is of great practical significance to improve the effectiveness of infrastructure investment,solve the spatial mismatch of infrastructure investment,and promote regional coordinated development.This paper establishes a multi-regional dynamic general equilibrium model with different transfer payment mechanisms.It finds that:(1)from the perspective of regional growth effect and regional distribution effect,compared with the financial support means of special transfer payment,infrastructure investment supported by general transfer payment can squeeze in more residents’consumption,private investment,and government investment,thus more effectively improving the development level of less developed areas.(2)Through a large number of special transfer payment projects to accelerate infrastructure investment in underdeveloped areas,the transfer payment resources of local governments are occupied,which makes the transfer payment not reach the maximum efficiency and increases the financial burden of local governments.(3)To realize the equitable development of the region,the continuous and large-scale increase in infrastructure investment to the less developed regions through transfer payments has become a weight in unhealthy competition among regions.While not maximizing efficiency,it has fallen into a vicious circle of"investment backward reinvestment",forming a spatial mismatch of infrastructure investment.Therefore,reasonable planning of the transfer payment structure and supporting policies to the less developed areas with population outflow is the feasible way to seek coordinated economic development.