基于CGE模型的海洋生态补偿宏观经济效应

Macroeconomic effects of marine ecological compensation based on the computable general equilibrium model

近年来,海洋经济的快速发展导致海洋生态坏境面临的压力越来越大。为保护海洋生态系统,实现海洋自然资源的可持续利用,亟需建立相应的海洋生态补偿机制,并探索生态补偿的标准问题。本文通过编制2017年中国宏观经济社会核算矩阵,构建中国宏观经济可计算一般均衡模型,模拟了征收不同程度的海洋生态补偿税对经济活动的影响。研究发现:(1)在征收生态补偿税的情形下,将政府收入增加的部分作为海洋生态补偿的专项资金,能够有效提高海洋生态补偿量。在生态补偿税设置为增值税的5%的情况下,海洋生态补偿量较初始情形相比,提升了4.07倍。(2)生态补偿税的征收会引起居民收入、企业收入、国外储蓄和国内生产总值的下降,对经济发展产生一定的阻碍作用。其中,居民收入和国外储蓄受影响较大,企业收入和国内生产总值受影响较小。因此,需要制定合理的生态补偿标准和政策,实现生态环境和社会经济的协调发展。

Marine ecological environment recently experiences an increasing pressure from the rapid development of marine economy.Marine ecological compensation standards-based mechanism is urgently needed to protect the marine ecosystem and thus enable the sustainable use of marine resources.This study established a macroeconomic computational general equilibrium model through constructing China’s macroeconomic social accounting matrix in 2017,and simulated the effects of different levels of ecological compensation tax on economic activities in China.The results show that:(1)The special fund of marine ecological compensation will be increased by additional government revenue associated with the collection of ecological compensation tax.It will effectively enlarge the amount of ecological compensation.When the tax is set to 5%of value-added tax,the amount of marine ecological compensation will increase by4.07 times from its initial situation;(2)Collecting ecological compensation tax will lead to greater declines of resident income and foreign saving compared to enterprise income and GDP,hindering the economic development.It is necessary to formulate reasonable ecological compensation standard and policy to realize the coordinated development of ecological environment and social economy.