灌溉供给对耕地“非粮化”的影响

Effect of Irrigation Supply on the“Non-farming”Farmland

以小型农田水利设施和微观农户的“非粮化”倾向为研究视角,基于河南等五省的调查数据,利用probit模型和CMP模型探讨了灌溉供给对耕地“非粮化”的影响效应、作用机制及异质性影响。研究表明:灌溉供给能够显著抑制农户的耕地“非粮化”倾向,且灌溉供给越充分,抑制作用越大,但存在一定门槛制约。在纯粮食种植户中,灌溉供给能够通过提高种粮产出,进而抑制农户“非粮化”倾向。异质性效果明显,过度集中化或缺少制度辅助的产权归属和管理,不利于小农水灌溉供给能力提升。产权所属需要适度集中化、适度制度化,管护主体需要多元化,两者共同作用提高小农水的灌溉供给能力,从而抑制“非粮化”倾向;灌溉供给对混种农户“非粮化”倾向抑制作用更大,对中部和西部农户“非粮化”倾向的作用依次降低,对东部农户影响不显著。因此,可以通过推动小农水产权改革和创新管护机制,发挥多中心治理优势,提高小农水的灌溉供给能力,从而抑制农户的“非粮化”倾向。

Based on the survey data of five provinces including Henan Province,this paper uses probit-model and CMP model to explore the effect,mechanism and heterogeneity of irrigation supply on the“non-farming”of arable land from the perspective of small-scale farmland water conservancy facilities and the“non-farming”tendency of micro farmers.The research shows that irrigation supply can significantly inhibit farmers’tendency of“non-farming”of arable land,and should the irrigation supply be more sufficient,the inhibition effect would be greater;but there are certain threshold constraints.Among pure grain growers,irrigation supply can inhibit farmers’“non-farming”tendency by increasing grain output.The effect of heterogeneity is obvious,and excessive centralization or lack of institutional-aided ownership and management of property rights is not conducive to the improvement of water irrigation supply capacity of small farmers.The ownership of property rights needs to be moderately centralized and institutionalized,and the management and protection subjects need to be diversified.Both of them work together to improve the irrigation supply capacity of small farmers,so as to curb the tendency of“non-farming”;The effect of irrigation supply on the“non-farming”tendency of mixed farmers is greater,and the effect on the“non-farming”tendency of farmers in the central and western regions is reduced in turn,while the effect on farmers in the eastern region is not significant.Therefore,we can promote the reform of small farmers’water property rights and innovate the management and protection mechanism,give play to the advantages of multi-center governance,improve the irrigation supply capacity of small farmers’water,and thus curb the“non-farming”tendency of farmers.