黑河上游径流演变规律及其变化原因分析

Analysis of the runoff development law and its causes in the upper reaches of the Heihe River

【目的】分析黑河流域径流演变规律及其变化原因,为区域水资源优化配置提供依据。【方法】本文采用MK检验法、Morlet小波函数法、基于水热条件变化原理的累积量斜率变化率比较法等方法,分析黑河上游出山口莺落峡河川径流演变的多时间尺度复杂结构;以径流突变年份为转折点分割序列,量化气候因子和人类活动对径流变化的影响程度。【结果】年径流突变点为2005年,突变后呈显著增加趋势;径流变化的第一主周期为24 a,最近丰水期为2009~2018年;流域内气候变化对径流变化的贡献率为70.2%,人类活动贡献率为29.8%。【结论】2019年后莺落峡径流丰枯情况可能发生转变,气候变化是径流增加的主导因素,研究结论可为流域径流演变规律及水资源优化配置提供理论支撑。

【Objective】The analysis of runoff evolution law and its causes of Heihe River basin,and the basis for the optimal allocation of regional water resources,has important guiding significance for the optimal allocation of water resources and ecological environmental protection.【Method】In this paper,MK test method,Morlet wavelet function method and cumulative slope change rate comparison method based on the change principle of hydrothermal conditions are used to analyze the multi-time scale complex structure of runoff evolution of Yingluoxia River in the upper reaches of Heihe River;taking the abrupt change year of runoff as the turning point segmentation sequence,the influence of climatic factors and human activities on runoff change is quantified.【Result】The turning point of annual runoff was in 2005,and the annual runoff showed a significant increasing trend after the turning point.The first major cycle of runoff change is 24years,and the latest wet season is 2009~2018.The contribution rate of climate change to runoff change in the watershed is 70.2%,and the contribution rate of human activities is 29.8%.【Conclusion】The situation of high and low runoff in Yingluoxia may change after 2019.Climate change is the main factor of runoff increase.The research conclusions can provide theoretical support for the evolution law of runoff and the optimal allocation of water resources.