“双循环”视角下中欧班列运行质量评价研究

Operation Quality Evaluation of China Railway Express from the Perspective of “Dual Circulation”

基于“双循环”视角,以循环规模、循环成本、循环效率、循环安全、循环可持续为准则层构建评价指标体系,运用ANP-CRITIC-GRA方法评价中欧班列运行质量,并提出对策建议。研究结果显示:“双循环”视角下中欧班列运行质量评价依次为中欧班列(成都) 0.865 0,中欧班列(重庆) 0.811 0,中欧班列(西安) 0.713 2,中欧班列(郑州) 0.657 9,中欧班列(乌鲁木齐) 0.591 0,中欧班列(义乌) 0.553 9;中欧班列(成都)循环可持续较好,中欧班列(义乌)循环成本较高,循环安全较差;全程运输风险、覆盖城市、开行列数、货运量、本地货源占比、城市科技创新指数和“一带一路”潜力城市指数是中欧班列发展的主要影响因素;循环可持续、循环规模和循环安全对中欧班列运行质量影响较大,是未来发展的重点。

Approaching from the perspective of “dual circulation”, this paper constructed an evaluation index system with circulation scale, circulation cost, circulation efficiency, circulation safety, and circulation sustainability as the criterion layer. Then, the paper further evaluated the operation quality of the China Railway(CR) Express by the analytic network process-criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation-grey relation analysis(ANP-CRITIC-GRA) method and put forward solutions and suggestions. The results support the following conclusions: The operation quality rank of the CR Express evaluated from the perspective of “dual circulation” is CR Express(Chengdu) with a score of 0.865 0, CR Express(Chongqing) with a score of 0.811 0, CR Express(Xi’an) with a score of 0.713 2, CR Express(Zhengzhou) with a score of 0.657 9, CR Express(Urumqi) with a score of 0.591 0, and CR Express(Yiwu) with a score of 0.553 9 from high to low;CR Express(Chengdu) has high circulation sustainability while CR Express(Yiwu) has a high circulation cost and poor circulation safety;the major factors affecting the development of the CR Express are the indexes of wholeprocess transport risk, city coverage, number of trains in operation, freight transport volume, proportion of local freight sources, and urban scientific and technological innovation, as well as the index of “Belt and Road” potential city;circulation sustainability, circulation scale, and circulation safety have major effects on the operation quality of the CR Express and should thus be the focus of the future development.