政治极化加剧下的美国情报政治化--逻辑、经验与路径

The American Intelligence Politicization Under the Increasing Political Polarization:Logics,Experience and Approach

[研究目的]在美国政治极化不断加剧的背景下,厘清美国的政治极化与情报政治化间的具体作用机制不仅能丰富情报政治化的学理内涵,而且有助于看清美国情报政策的内在实质。[研究方法]通过引入历史制度主义政治学的“间断均衡”和“渐进转型”概念,搭建政治极化加剧下美国情报政治化的解释框架,可有效识别其中的逻辑动因与实现路径。[研究结论]奥巴马时代民主党的“多元化与包容性”人事改革促使情报界“渐进转型”,是典型的“情报软政治化”路径体现;而特朗普胜选引发情报决策层偏好“间断逆转”,情报泄密案件量出现激增,致使美国“情报硬政治化”趋势持续走强。

[Research purpose]Clarifying the specific mechanism between political polarization and the American intelligence politicization can not only enrich the theoretical connotation of the intelligence politicization,but also help to see the essence of American intelligence policy.[Research method]By introducing the concepts of"punctuated equilibrium"and"gradual institutional change",we can establish an analytical framework of American intelligence politicization under the increasing political polarization,identifying the causal mechanism and its approach.[Research conclusion]The"diversity and inclusion"personnel reform in the Obama era achieved a"gradual institutional change"of the intelligence community,leading to"soft politicization"of intelligence service;The Trump's victory triggered a"punctuated"reversal of intelligence decision-making,which encountered with strong resistance from the intelligence community,and the trend of"hard politicization"of intelligence service had been growing stronger.