中国数字创新与经济高质量发展的协同效应及动态演进预测

Synergistic Effect and Dynamic Evolution Prediction of Digital Innovation and High-Quality Economic Development in China

伴随着新一代数字技术的蓬勃发展与全面渗透,创新的范式由此发生了转变,数字创新的出现为重塑当前创新发展经济体系、深化数字经济背景下的经济高质量发展提供了新的动力与契机。本文从协同理论视角,在理论上探究了数字创新与经济高质量发展的协同机理,进一步地运用2013—2019年省域面板数据构建“数字创新-经济高质量发展”双系统耦合协调模型,实证检验了中国数字创新与经济高质量发展的协同效应及动态演进。研究发现:第一,数字创新与经济高质量发展的匹配度决定经济发展质量,中国绝大多数省份数字创新与经济高质量发展之间联系密切,二者间存在较高的匹配度;第二,数字创新与经济高质量发展的融合度决定经济高质量发展的协同效应,中国数字创新与经济高质量发展大多处于中度或轻度失调状态,地区数字创新与经济高质量发展长期失调的根本原因在于数字创新长期滞后于经济高质量发展;第三,中国各地区数字创新与经济高质量发展的协同效应存在显著的地区异质性,结合空间区位视角发现,数字创新与经济高质量发展的协同效应存在“以邻为善”与“以邻为壑”的空间溢出效应。本研究为数字创新与经济高质量发展的协同演进提供了理论支撑,同时也为全面掌握各地区数字创新与经济高质量发展的协同现状、科学制定差异化发展策略提供了现实依据。

With the vigorous development and full penetration of the new generation of digital information technology, the paradigm of innovation has changed. The emergence of digital innovation provides new impetus and opportunity for reshaping the current innovative economic system and deepening the high-quality economic development under the background of the digital economy. From the perspective of synergy theory, this paper theoretically explores the synergy mechanism between digital innovation and high-quality economic development, and further uses the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2019 to build a dual-system coupling coordination model of “digital innovation-high-quality economic development”, and empirically tests the synergy effect and dynamic evolution of digital innovation and high-quality economic development in China. It is found that: First, the matching degree between digital innovation and high-quality economic development determines the quality of economic development. There is a close relationship between digital innovation and high-quality economic development in most provinces of China, and there is a high matching degree between them. Second, the integration of digital innovation and high-quality economic development determines the synergy effect of high-quality economic development. Most of China’s digital innovation and high-quality economic development is in a moderate or mild imbalance. The fundamental reason for the long-term imbalance between regional digital innovation and high-quality economic development lies in the fact that digital innovation lags behind high-quality economic development for a long time. Third, there is significant regional heterogeneity in the synergy between digital innovation and high-quality economic development in various regions of China. From the perspective of spatial location, it is found that the synergy between digital innovation and high-quality economic development has the spatial spillover effects of “being good neighbors” and “begging neighbors”. This study provides theoretical support for the coordinated evolution of digital innovation and high-quality economic development and also provides a realistic basis for comprehensively grasping the coordinated status of digital innovation and high-quality economic development in various regions and scientifically formulating differentiated development strategies.