基于灰色预测GM(1,1)模型山东省卫生人力资源变化趋势研究

Study on the trend of health human resources in Shandong Province based on grey prediction GM(1,1) model

[目的]分析2012-2020年山东省卫生人力资源配置现状,预测2021-2025年卫生人力资源变化趋势。[方法]以2012-2020年山东省卫生人力资源配置为原始数据,利用GM(1,1)方法构建模型预测山东省卫生人力资源配置数并分析其变化趋势。[结果]2021-2025年山东省卫生人力资源配置总体呈上升态势,到2025年山东省三类地区千人口卫生技术人员数分别增长至11.71人、7.79人、8.85人,执业(助理)医师分别为4.66人、3.27人、3.75人,注册护士分别为5.79人、4.08人、4.17人。[结论]山东省卫生人力资源配置水平进一步得到提升,医护比逐渐趋于合理,虽经济落后地区卫生人力资源配置涨幅明显,但总量不及经济发达地区,地区间存在差异,注册护士仍有短缺,亟需制定相关政策缩小地区间差异,提高护士待遇,完善医护比,切实保障公共卫生服务均等化。

Objective To analyze the current situation of health human resources allocation in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2020,and to predict the trend of health human resources from 2021 to 2025.Methods Based on the original data of health human resources allocation in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2020,a model based on GM(1,1) was constructed to predict the allocation of health human resources and analyze its changing trend in Shandong Province from 2021 to 2025.Results From 2021 to 2025,the allocation of health human resources in Shandong Province showed an overall upward trend. The number of health workers per 1000 people will increase to 11.71,7.79 and 8.85 respectively in three categories of cities in Shandong Province by 2025. The number of(assistant)practicing physicians will be 4.66,3.27 and 3.75 respectively. The number of registered nurses will be 5.79,4.08 and 4.17 respectively.Conclusions Health human resources allocation in Shandong Province gets further improved. The ratio of doctors to nurses becomes reasonable gradually. Health human resources allocation increases significantly in the economically backward areas, but the total amount is not as good as economically developed areas. There are regional differences. Registered nurses are still in shortage. So it is urgent to formulate relevant policies to narrow the gap between regions, increase salary for nurses, improve the ratio of doctors to nurses, and ensure the equalization of public health services effectively.