基于区间估计的输电线路工程技术经济指标体系研究

Research on Technical and Economic Indicator System of Power Grid Engineering Based on Interval Estimation

技术经济指标在电网工程造价水平分析中起到至关重要的作用,为满足电网工程造价管理的精细化要求,有必要构建一套适合各地建设特点的、能够快速分析影响因素的电网工程技术经济指标体系,为项目决策、造价评审提供科学的参考依据。以云南地区架空线路工程技术经济指标体系为例,首先参考现行标准规范确定各类工程技术经济指标层级划分,其次运用德尔菲法、多因素统计分析法、费用标准理论推算法确定边界条件,最后利用剔除异常值后的区间估计测算技术经济指标的置信区间。本文建立的电网工程技术经济指标体系为电网工程技术经济指标体系构建提供新思路和计算方法,也为电网工程造价水平分析提供全面且合理的对比参考。

Technical and economic indicators play a vital role in the analysis of power grid engineering cost levels.In order to meet the refined requirements of power grid engineering cost management,it is necessary to build a set of technical and economic indicator system of power grid engineering that is suitable for local construction characteristics and can quickly analyze influencing factors,and provides a scientific reference for project decision-making and cost evaluation.Taking the technical and economic indicator system of overhead line engineering in Yunnan as an example,firstly,referring to the current standards and specifications to determine the hierarchical division of various engineering technical and economic indicators.Secondly,using the Delphi method,multifactor statistical analysis method,and cost standard theoretical calculation method to determine the boundary conditions.Lastly,the confidence interval of technical and economic indicators is calculated by using interval estimation after removing outliers.The power grid engineering technical and economic index system established in this study provides new ideas and calculation methods for the construction of the power grid engineering technical and economic index system,and also provides a comprehensive and reasonable comparison reference for the power grid engineering cost level analysis.