基于创新趋势分析方法的黄河年季降水变化特征研究

Characteristics of Annual and Seasonal Precipitation Change in the Yellow River Basin based on the Innovative Trend Analysis Method

为探究黄河流域降水变化特征,选取黄河流域92个气象站1960-2015年逐日降水资料,采用创新趋势分析方法、Mann-Kendall检验和Sen′s斜率法分析了黄河流域年季尺度降水量变化特征。结果表明:黄河流域年降水量整体呈现出东南多西北少的空间分布格局。从时间变化上看,黄河流域年降水量整体呈现下降趋势。在季节尺度上,黄河流域春、冬季降水呈增加趋势,而夏、秋季降水呈下降趋势。黄河流域春季轻度降水无显著变化趋势,黄河中游和下游夏季轻度降水呈下降趋势,黄河流域秋季轻度降水呈下降趋势,黄河流域冬季轻度降水呈上升趋势。夏季强降水在黄河上游呈10%左右的下降趋势,在黄河中游呈5%左右的上升趋势。通过探究黄河流域不同量级年季降水的变化趋势,可为黄河流域水资源管理和水旱灾害防治提供参考,进而为黄河流域高质量发展提供支撑。

To explore the characteristics of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin,based on 92 meteorological stations,this paper analyzes the trend of annual and seasonal precipitation in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2015 by using an innovative trend analysis(ITA)method,Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope.The results show that precipitation increases from the northwest area to the southeast area.The Yellow River Basin exhibits an overall decreasing trend in annual precipitation with inter-annual precipitation becoming more even.In terms of seasonal precipitation,spring and winter precipitation show increasing trends,while summer and autumn precipitation exhibit decreasing trends in the Yellow River Basin.Furthermore,in spring,the light precipitation has a non-monotonic trend in the Yellow River Basin.The summer light precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin shows a downward trend.The light precipitation in the Yellow River Basin shows a downward trend in autumn,while it exhibits an upward trend in winter.In summer,the heavy precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yellow River shows a downward trend of about 10%,while it shows an upward trend of about 5%in the middle reaches of the Yellow River.By exploring the changing trend of annual and seasonal precipitation of different magnitudes in the Yellow River Basin,this paper can provide a reference for the water resources management and flood and drought disaster prevention in the Yellow River Basin,and then support the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.