“以水四定”背景下县域水资源承载力定量评价

Quantitative Evaluation of the Carrying Capacity of County Water Resources in the Context of“Four Determinations with Water”

区域水资源承载力的衡定和底线约束是生态安全、区域和谐发展的前提和基础,是影响地区经济发展的主要因素,对于国土空间规划的完善具有至关重要的作用。人类生活的各方面生产需要皆依赖于水条件的控制,水资源面临的形式愈发严峻。传统的水资源承载力评价多基于静态描述并划分等级,对水资源承载能力大小的认识还有欠缺。以秦岭山区某县为研究区,在阅读文献、收集数据和实地调查的基础上,运用能值生态足迹理论,借助“以水四定”原则对水资源承载力做出评价,计算和分析了该县区2017-2020年的水生态足迹、水生态承载力和生态盈亏状况,以及水资源影响下的地区发展指标容量,并使用ArcGIS对生态足迹数据空间分布进行可视化表达,选用障碍度模型对影响水资源承载力的障碍因子进行了识别,最后对水资源合理布局方向做出科学优化。研究表明,该地区水资源供给略大于需求;水资源生态足迹空间分布高值区多在中心区域;人均水资源生态足迹、污水生态足迹和生态用水生态足迹是影响水资源承载力提升的主要障碍因子;优化方向上应根据水资源分布调整产业结构以发展特色产业。科学利用水资源对保证经济发展至关重要,只有合理调度水资源利用导向,明确水资源承载力,提高水资源利用效率,才能促进社会、经济、环境的协同发展。

The determination of the carrying capacity of regional water resources and the bottom line constraints are the prerequisite and basis for ecological security and harmonious regional development,and are the main factors affecting regional economic development.All aspects of human life are dependent on the control of water conditions,and water resources are facing increasingly severe conditions.The traditional assessment of the carrying capacity of water resources is mostly based on static description and classification,and the understanding of the size of the carrying capacity of water resources is still lacking.This paper takes a county in the Qinling Mountains as the study area.Based on literature,data collection and field surveys,this paper uses the ecological footprint theory to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources with the help of the“four determinations of water”principle,and calculates and analyses the ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity and ecological surplus and deficit of the county from 2017 to 2020.The spatial distribution of the ecological footprint data is visualized in ArcGIS,and a barrier degree model is used to identify the barriers affecting the water resources carrying capacity,and finally to make scientific optimization of the rational layout of water resources.The study shows that the supply of water resources in the region is slightly greater than the demand.The high value of the spatial distribution of the ecological footprint of water resources is mostly in the central area;the ecological footprint of water resources per capita,the ecological footprint of sewage and the ecological footprint of ecological water use are the main obstacle factors affecting the improvement of the carrying capacity of water resources;the direction of optimization should be adjusted according to the distribution of water resources in order to develop special industries.The scientific use of water resources is essential to ensuring economic development.Only by reasonably scheduling the direction of water resources use,clarifying the water resources carrying capacity and improving the efficiency of water resources use can we promote the synergistic development of society,economy and environment.