新时代中国人口发展:现状、特征、影响和挑战

China’s Population Development in the New Era: Current Situation, Characteristics, Influence and Challenges

进入21世纪第二个十年,中国社会经济发展进入新的时代,社会经济发展与人口发展处于双转变进程中,人口与经济发展所达到的状态为中国式现代化新征程开启打下了坚实基础和有利条件。根据2020年第七次全国人口普查数据,深入分析了10年来中国人口转变的大趋势,在规模、结构、素质、分布等方面所呈现的新特征,并进一步探明人口转变对社会经济发展所产生的深刻影响及其作用,阐明未来所面临的低生育率下劳动供给减少和老龄化深化等一系列挑战。

In the second decade of the 2lst century, China’s social and economic development has entered into a new era. Both social-economic development and population development are in the process of transformation.The population and economic development have laid a solid foundation and favorable conditions for the new journey of chinese modernization.Based on the data of the seventh national census in 2020, this paper analyzes the megatrends of China’s population transformation in the last decade and its new features in terms of the population scale, structure, quality and distribution, and further examines the long-term impact of population transformation on social and economic development,elaborates a series of challenges in the future, such as the deduction of labor supply and the acceleration of population aging under the low fertility rate.