新能源项目LCOE度电成本与IRR内部收益率的等效性分析

Equivalence Analysis of LCOE and IRR for New Energy Projects

[目的]随着国内新能源发电行业的发展,补贴退坡和资源竞争配置等政策的实施,全生命周期平准化发电成本(LCOE)越来越被大家关注和使用,但行业内对LCOE的计算标准不一,文章主要为了解析其与内部收益率(IRR)的关系,来提高大家对LCOE度电的认识以及规范LCOE度电成本的使用。[方法]文章先对两者的特点和应用场景做了分析,然后通过两者计算公式的简化和转换,分析固定IRR反算电价和LCOE度电成本在模型上的差异和联系。最后通过某海上风电的实例分析,计算两者结果的实际差距,并分析造成这些差异的因素及敏感性。[结果]从结果来看,简化条件后两者的计算模型十分接近,两者差异仅为所得税。通过实例分析,造成IRR反算电价和LCOE度电成本差异的因素有建设期增值税抵扣、增值税和所得税的税后优惠、附加税、融资情况,且这些因素的影响方向和程度都不同。可以认为,IRR内部收益率反算电价与LCOE度电成本在原理上是近似的,但受到国内财税制度的影响,输入参数、边界条件的增加使得两者出现了差异。[结论]建议通过主管部门、行业协会等对LCOE进行适当的本地化修正,并结合环境影响成本和电力系统影响成本,使其可以横向比较不同发电形式的经济性,也可以在特定工程中,实现不同方案的经济性快速比较。

[Introduction] With the development of domestic renewable energy industry, the recession of governmental subsidies and the implementation of policies such as competitive allocation of resources, Levelized Cost of Energy(LCOE) is gaining more and more attention and application, but its calculation method is inconsistent in domestic energy industry. In this paper, the relationship between Internal Rate of Return(IRR) and LCOE is analyzed to improve understanding of LCOE and standardize its application. [Method] The characteristics and application scenarios of LCOE and IRR were analyzed, and then their calculation formulas were simplified and transformed to analyze the difference and relation between them in models. Finally through the case analysis of an offshore wind power plant, the actual difference between the results was calculated, and the factors causing the difference and their sensitivities were analyzed.[Result] From the perspective of results, the simplified calculation models are very similar except for the income tax. According to the case analysis, the factors causing the difference between IRR and LCOE include the VAT deduction, after-tax incentives of VAT and income tax, additional taxes, and financing during the construction period, and influenced different directions to different extent. It can be considered that IRR and LCOE are similar in principle, but they become different under the influence of domestic fiscal policy, tax system and increased boundary conditions. [Conclusion] It is suggested that LCOE is properly localized and revised by competent departments, industry associations, etc. In combination with environmental impact costs and power system impact costs, the economy of different power generation approaches can be compared, and the rapid comparison of the economy of different schemes can also be achieved in specific projects.